The "New Stimulus Checks" of TradFi? What story is the capital telling behind the surge in gold and silver prices

If you’ve been solely focused on the crypto market lately, you might be missing a major development happening in TradFi. In 2025, gold and silver are sending a clear message through their prices: The real “stimulus checks” no longer come from central banks, but from the assets themselves.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold prices have risen from $2,400 per ounce in 2024 to the current $4,500, an increase of up to 88%; silver’s performance is even more dramatic, soaring from $29 to $79, an increase of over 170%. Within the TradFi system, such market movements are already enough to be called “asset-level wealth redistribution.”

Why Gold and Silver Are Becoming the Main Assets in TradFi

From a TradFi perspective, gold and silver are not short-term speculative tools but long-term risk hedging assets. Several very clear drivers are behind this current rally.

First, the household asset effect is becoming evident. Data shows that about 11% of Americans hold gold, and around 12% hold silver. As prices surge, American households have increased their net assets by approximately $244.5 billion this year due to precious metals appreciation. This “passive appreciation” effect is essentially similar to the stimulus checks of previous years, only this time the market is directly distributing money.

Second, central banks and national-level purchases continue. China and India bought between 700 and 900 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, directly doubling gold prices. Such behavior is interpreted within the TradFi system as a hedge against long-term monetary credit, rather than simple trading activity.

The Independent Logic of Silver Is Strengthening

If gold is more of a “stabilizer” in TradFi, silver is gradually becoming a “high-elasticity version.”

On one hand, silver itself has the properties of a precious metal; on the other hand, its industrial demand in new energy, electronics manufacturing, and other fields continues to grow. More critically, China plans to implement export restrictions on silver starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to directly intensify global supply tensions.

In the TradFi market, limited supply combined with steadily growing demand often means the price center shifts upward, rather than a simple market rally.

Will There Be a Short-Term Pullback? What Are TradFi Funds Thinking?

It must be acknowledged that, in the short term, both gold and silver face profit-taking pressures. Rapid gains and capital rotation are inevitable phenomena; some funds may temporarily flow into stocks or even cryptocurrencies, creating market volatility.

However, from the long-term allocation logic of TradFi, this does not constitute a trend reversal. Inflation expectations still exist, the rate-cut cycle has not truly ended, and the global trend of central banks continuously increasing gold holdings remains unchanged. These factors suggest that precious metals are more likely to enter a high-level oscillation rather than a deep decline.

A Realistic Signal for Crypto Investors from TradFi

For crypto investors, the surge in gold and silver is not bad news but a very practical reminder. TradFi capital has not disappeared; it has simply chosen the currently more certain direction.

When crypto market sentiment is low, understanding the asset allocation logic of TradFi and paying attention to the trends of traditional assets like gold and silver can help better judge when capital might flow back in the future.