#美联储利率政策 Seeing this round of Federal Reserve actions, what flashes through my mind is the QE of 2012. Back then, no one truly understood the deep implications of liquidity injections on digital assets until Bitcoin surged from a few dollars to tens of dollars, and everyone reacted belatedly.

Today’s "hidden QE" is essentially the same— the Fed shifting from balance sheet reduction to net injections. The recent $40 billion Treasury reserve management purchase is essentially a disguised liquidity infusion. The key point is timing; it arrived earlier than market expectations, and reserve growth could last until April 2026. Coupled with the expectation of another 50 basis point rate cut in the future, the policy environment indeed appears much more moderate than it seems on the surface.

Data confirms this. The third consecutive week of $864 million net inflow, the strong performance of the US market with $796 million, and continuous outflows from Bitcoin short products—this is not random fluctuation; funds are voting with their feet. However, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s performance this year has been relatively lagging, with $27.7 billion in annual inflows compared to $41 billion at the same period last year, a clear contrast. In comparison, Ethereum and Solana’s growth curves are much more impressive.

History tells me that the true impact of policy turning points often only fully manifests after expectations and reality align. This time, we may be in that critical window. Moderate policy environment, ongoing liquidity injections, cautious optimism from institutional funds—these are common features at the end of a bear market. However, past lessons also remind me that improved expectations do not equal market initiation; the real turning point often arrives quietly when least expected.