This round of BNB's decline on the 1-hour chart is indeed significant, and many in the market are starting to turn bearish. From the surface chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, the moving averages are arranged in a bearish pattern, and the MACD green bars are clearly expanding—technical traders are choosing to be bearish at this point, which makes logical sense.

However, the world of trading can never rely solely on candlestick patterns; that’s no different from gambling. My consistent methodology is as follows: use technical analysis to determine direction, on-chain data to observe the true intentions of participants, and the news environment to confirm whether the overall framework is stable.

First, let’s look at the on-chain aspect. The inflow of large funds has indeed slowed down, and this phenomenon is real. But the key point is that we haven't seen signs of large-scale, sustained on-chain dumping. What does this mean? There are no signs of major institutions fleeing; instead, they might be accumulating at low levels. The downward momentum mainly comes from retail panic selling and forced liquidations of leveraged positions, rather than institutional exits.

On the news front, things are relatively stable. Although market sentiment is tense, there are no sudden, system-wide negative news events. From another perspective, this reduces the risk of a market crash—there’s a lack of catalysts strong enough to trigger a stampede.

Most of the technical bearish signals are already evident, and market participants are showing a consensus bearish outlook. Interestingly, when the entire market is heading in the same direction, contrarian thinking can often reveal opportunities.

Honestly, I’m not overly worried about this trend; in fact, I’m somewhat looking forward to what might come next. It’s like a sudden thunderstorm—intense but not followed by a continuous hurricane. The technical downside momentum is currently in the release phase, the on-chain fundamentals haven't broken down, and there’s no trigger point in the news layer.

In the short term, there may still be some inertia downward, such as testing the 850-855 zone. But this doesn’t mean a collapse; rather, it provides an opportunity for those who truly believe in the long-term prospects to re-enter. My judgment is that after shaking out those with weak conviction and leveraged longs, the more probable outcome is a stabilization and rebound. From my analysis framework, the risk-reward ratio for bottom fishing at this level is quite skewed.

Next, I will closely monitor the absorption at key support levels—these details often reflect the true intentions of market participants. The market always rewards those who see through the situation more clearly and hold more stable positions than others.