2025-12-29 11:25:11

Recently, while analyzing on-chain data, I noticed a particularly interesting phenomenon: the capital inflow in certain trading channels has reached new highs, yet BTC has not experienced the expected pullback; instead, it continues to rise. This contrast can be quite confusing—based on past experience, large capital inflows should be followed by a shakeout before gradually building positions, right?

After a closer look, I found that there are actually three market logic changes behind this that are worth paying attention to.

**The first change: Inflow ≠ Selling Pressure Signal**

Many people automatically assume that "capital inflow" indicates big players are about to sell. In fact, this understanding is biased. On-chain capital inflow usually refers to users transferring assets from cold wallets or other trading platforms into mainstream exchanges. This action itself simply indicates that participants are preparing to actively trade and does not directly mean they are about to sell immediately. The interesting part in 2025 is that the operators behind these inflows are more strategic—they leverage the transparency of on-chain data to do reverse positioning. They appear to be entering the market but are actually locking their positions, creating a market scarcity expectation, and ultimately pushing prices higher with buying pressure.

**The second change: Market Maker Structure Has Improved**

In the past, we were used to seeing sharp rises accompanied by intense volatility, mainly because high-frequency arbitrage bots and short-term funds were everywhere, and any slight disturbance could trigger a dump or a rally. But this year's situation is clearly different. Mainstream trading platforms' market-making strategies have become more refined, liquidity depth has significantly improved, and the randomness of volatility has decreased.

**The third change: Market Participants Are More Mature**

The nature of capital is also upgrading. The proportion of institutional investors is rising, their operation cycles are longer, and their strategies are more prudent. This directly changes the market’s rhythm and risk characteristics.

These three factors stack together to explain why capital continues to flow in, yet BTC can maintain a relatively steady upward trajectory—this is not abnormal, but the new normal after market iteration.

BTC-0.12%

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OnchainDetectiveBing

· 7h ago

Wow, now I understand. I used to think that inflows would lead to dumping, but it turns out to be a reverse operation. Locking positions to create scarcity? That trick is really clever. Institutions really have made the market more stable; the previous crazy volatility is gone. It makes some sense, but it still depends on how the on-chain data moves later. Does this logic hold up with the data on the chain? Looking for solid proof. But indeed, BTC has been rising quite steadily this year, not as violent as before. Market depth has really improved, slippage is much less, and the trading experience is completely different. Have the big players all learned to pretend? They seem to enter superficially but actually lock their positions. I just want to know when they will actually sell. I believe institutions are entering, but how is the scarcity expectation maintained? Someone has to take the other side of the trade. Wait, does this mean retail investors are more likely to get cut? Funds are being guided away.

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SerNgmi

· 7h ago

Ah, I knew it. Those old foxes in the institutions are really playing new tricks. Amazing, the tactic of locking positions to create scarcity—I should have thought of it earlier. Wait, does this mean that the old logic of shakeouts is outdated? Maybe I set my stop-loss too tight, haha. I need to take a closer look at the market depth enhancement; it seems to be the core reason behind BTC's steady rise. Even the volatility has been "refined," Web3 is really growing up.

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VCsSuckMyLiquidity

· 7h ago

Wow, this logic just doesn't feel right... Are institutions really that stable? I remember a few months ago they were also harvesting profits.

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SneakyFlashloan

· 7h ago

Oh wow, this set of theories sounds good, but I still feel it's too idealistic. On-chain data transparency reverse layout? Basically, it's just institutions playing psychological games. Anyway, retail investors will never guess the true intentions of the big players. Market-making structure optimization and liquidity depth improvement... alright, at least it's not as easy to be broken through by robots as before. I believe the proportion of institutional investors is rising, but the problem is that their purpose is just to wait for us to take the bait. Anyway, as long as funds keep entering and the price can still rise steadily, it either indicates there are some good news we can't see, or the big players are carefully setting a trap.

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YieldWhisperer

· 7h ago

Oh no, wait, the logic seems reversed. If institutions really enter the market, it will get even crazier. Suddenly no volatility feels a bit strange. Who would believe that? Locking positions to create scarcity? Sounds just like the real thing. I just want to see who is playing this game.

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