Ethereum's price fluctuations are not just driven by technical factors; macroeconomics, regulatory trends, and a host of external factors are also influencing the market. To truly understand ETH's direction, these variables need to be analyzed one by one.

Let's start with the macro environment. The current economic climate is quite unfriendly to risk assets like ETH. The Federal Reserve has recently adopted a hawkish stance, causing market expectations for a rate cut in 2026 to be repeatedly pushed back. Additionally, US Q4 GDP growth exceeded expectations, creating a scenario where liquidity tightens and risk assets are suppressed.

An interesting phenomenon here is the strong correlation between Ethereum and the S&P 500 index. In other words, when traditional stock markets fluctuate, the crypto market tends to follow suit. Investors' risk appetite determines where crypto funds flow. Interest rates are particularly critical. Currently, high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like ETH, prompting some funds to shift toward interest-bearing products like bonds. Only when monetary policy begins to loosen can the crypto market find some breathing room.

Now, regarding regulation. 2025 will be a watershed year for Ethereum. How the US SEC classifies ETH—whether as a commodity or a security—will determine whether institutional investors dare to enter the market on a large scale.

There's also the path of spot ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved, but Ethereum ETFs are still in queue. Once this hurdle is cleared, the floodgates for traditional capital will open, and ETH prices could receive significant support. The ongoing coordination among global regulators is also worth monitoring, as policy directions from the US, EU, and other economies will ultimately be reflected in the market.