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Last week, the overall market continued to rise moderately, with trading volume surpassing 2.15 trillion yuan, hitting a new high since November — this is indeed a good signal. After eight consecutive trading days of gains, the market's energy release was not fully sufficient, and major hotspots appeared somewhat blurred, but at least there was no sign of a sharp downturn. So the current strategy is to continue holding stocks until the market itself signals a change in mindset.
With the year coming to an end, compared to the overwhelming "bull market" calls at the beginning of the year, things have quieted down quite a bit. However, 2025 has generally been a rewarding year for investors. Especially in the tech sector, the cumulative increase of the STAR Market Index exceeded 46% by the end of last week, which is quite impressive. But I have been saying since the beginning of the year: "Consumption is the ceiling of technology" — and this judgment is becoming more and more valid. The real factor limiting the continued strength of tech stocks ultimately remains weak consumption.
Looking at the details makes it clear. The Shanghai Composite Index has already broken through the 2021 historical high, but the STAR Market Index is still about 100 points below its 1789 peak that year. What does this gap indicate? The C-end digestion capacity cannot keep up, leading to limited profit growth for upstream companies in the industrial chain. Now, consumption has become the core variable in the market, affecting not only the performance of tech stocks but also directly related to the overall market dividend distribution.
Regarding the push towards 4000 points, the real issue is not whether we can reach 4000 points, but who will continue to push higher once we get there. The market is also contemplating this question, so the main trend remains somewhat blurry. Let's keep our minds steady and patiently wait for opportunities within our holdings' gains.