#预测市场 Seeing the recent fluctuations in the Fed chair nomination, I am reminded that many people often make the same mistake in investing—overly chasing expected changes.

The probability of Waller being chosen in prediction markets jumped from 7% to 48%, while Haskett dropped from 85% to 42%. Such dramatic swings in data can indeed make people uneasy. But if we look closely at this, what is the core issue? Regardless of who ultimately takes office, the Federal Reserve's policy framework won't change drastically, and the economic policy ideas of the two candidates are not as different as the market reaction suggests.

This reminds me of an important principle—market expectations often change more violently than the fundamentals. As investors, we can easily be led by these short-term fluctuations, constantly adjusting positions and trading frequently, which can actually undermine our returns.

What is the truly prudent approach? After clarifying your asset allocation plan, leave enough room for expectations. No matter how the Fed chair nomination or market sentiment fluctuates, stick to your rhythm and proportions. Only then can you achieve relatively stable returns in the long run. Short-term uncertainties are often the best friends of long-term investors.