Bitcoin has reached this point, and many people are considering whether to continue falling or to rebound. Based on the current technical analysis, the bearish momentum still dominates, but there is still a chance.

If the price rebounds to the 87,900 to 88,000 range and shows signs of stagnation—that is, a lack of momentum in the rebound—then it might be a good time to consider a light short position, with a stop loss set at 88,800. According to the current trend, the initial target below is 87,400. If this level cannot hold, then look further down to the 86,500 to 86,000 range.

As for going long, you need to wait until Bitcoin can stabilize above the EMA(7) line and break through the EMA(25) with volume. Currently, the probability of this happening is low, so it’s better to stay on the sidelines for now.

From a probability perspective, the daily chart shows a very clear bearish arrangement, indicating an overall downward trend; while on the 1-hour chart, there is a possibility of a rebound, but EMA resistance is still in place; the 15-minute chart is even weaker, with no signs of a meaningful reversal. Overall, the probability of an upward move is about 25%, while the downward move has a 75% chance.

It’s important to note that BTC’s market volume is somewhat lacking at the moment, which makes false breakouts or sudden large swings more likely. When trading, be sure to control your position size and set proper stop losses.