Prediction markets have long been suspected of manipulation and should be exposed🔥 Looking at the hypothetical scenario in 2028, Vance's support rate suddenly skyrockets, and a group of people are still arguing whether it's public opinion or just a money grab—it's absurd. The key is that AI has learned to fake public opinion, and traditional polls are already useless. Prediction markets have become the last line of defense—yet ironically, they are also the easiest to manipulate.

There are countless historical cases of manipulation: in 1916, 2012, and the 2004 Berlin elections, where direct mail campaigns were used to buy votes... By 2024, during the Polymarket wave, Trump's lead was so much higher than polls suggested that some thought it was foreign interference, but it turned out to be just a French guy trying to make money. It's hilarious—this is what you call the "boy who cried wolf" effect.

But this stuff is really shockingly easy to manipulate. In markets with low liquidity, a single large order can drag the price to extremes, and arbitrageurs often can't react quickly enough before the market gets washed out. CNN reports these prices daily, and once social media shares them, herd mentality kicks in—what was originally just a bluff becomes a real public opinion trend.

The real risk isn't whether election results can be manipulated, but that once there's an inexplicable price surge, the whole internet will scream "someone's manipulating," and trust will instantly collapse. Instead of panicking, it's better to establish monitoring systems early, improve market transparency, and focus on markets with high liquidity.

In my opinion, prediction markets themselves are fine; the problem is that we haven't figured out how to use them properly. 🎯