【January 1, 2026 Morning Session】The First Shot of the New Year! Bitcoin at the 80,000 Critical Level Life-and-Death Battle, Fed Rate Cut Dream Shattered in January?

Good morning, crypto friends! I am the Crypto Gold Digger. On the first trading day of 2026, I have been live streaming throughout to help everyone precisely capture the opening opportunities!

First, I wish everyone a happy New Year and a prosperous market! In the new year, we will continue fighting side by side, unlocking new chapters of wealth! To my loyal fans, comment "Happy New Year" in the chat and claim your red envelope—let me see your quick fingers!

I. US Stocks 2025 Wrap-up: The "Fake Fall" Signal Behind the Glitz

Last night, the US stock market closed 2025 with impressive data:

• Dow Jones +12.97% for the year, 8 consecutive months of gains

• S&P 500 +16.39%, three consecutive positive months reaching new highs

• Nasdaq +20.36%, a tech feast

But don’t be fooled! In the last week of December, all indices closed lower: Dow down 0.63%, Nasdaq down 0.76%, Nvidia down 0.55%, Tesla down 1.04%. High-level volume with stagnation indicates a classic "smart money retreat" signal.

Core judgment: US stocks are forming a top, with over a 70% chance of a correction in Q1 2026. What does this mean for the crypto market? Linkage pressure! The 0.5 correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks is no joke—if US stocks fall, BTC won’t rise independently.

II. Fed Rate Cut Dream in January Shattered! Market Expectations Reverse Significantly

CME "Federal Reserve Watch" latest data: only a 14.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, 85.1% chance of holding steady!

By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 51.7%, with a 42.5% chance of no change. The market’s hawkish expectations for the Fed are severely underestimated!

What does this mean?

• Short-term liquidity will not loosen: don’t expect a flood in January, the market must "tough it out"

• March is a critical point: if no cut by then, Bitcoin may fall below 75,000

• Volatility will spike: the greater the divergence in expectations, the more intense the market swings

Yibo strategy: Focus on defense in January, keep positions below 30%, and increase after the Fed’s March decision.

III. 2025 Crypto Market Review: A Blood-Soaked History of "Institutional Harvesting Retail Investors"

In 2025, the crypto market staged the most brutal bull-bear switch rehearsal in history:

First half: Bitcoin broke through $126,000, Ethereum surged past $4,000, market sentiment FOMO to the peak. Retail investors went all-in, leverage up to 10x.

Second half: Sudden change! Bitcoin plunged to $80,000, Ethereum retraced to $2,600, both down over 35%. Retail investors cut losses and exited, institutions built positions on the left side.

Key data: ETF net inflows reached $25 billion in 2025, institutional holdings rose to 24%, while retail holdings plummeted from 66% to less than 30%. This is not a bear market—it’s a wealth transfer!

Current pattern: The market is oscillating in the $80,000–$90,000 range, a zone of bulls and bears:

• Overhead trapped positions: the $120,000–$100,000 zone, heavy resistance

• Support levels: $75,000–$78,000, institutional cost basis

• Time window: expected to oscillate for 2-3 months to digest positions

Yibo’s judgment: The market is in the "institutional accumulation late stage." Short-term downtrend continues, but $75,000 is a firm bottom. Breaking below is a money-making opportunity!

IV. Technical Analysis: Bearish Continuation, Downside Locked!

Today’s technical outlook:

Bitcoin (BTC):

• Daily level: three failed attempts to test the midline (85,000), downtrend confirmed

• MACD: death cross downward, green bars expanding, bearish momentum not exhausted

• Key support: 78,000 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement), 75,000 (institutional cost line)

• Key resistance: 85,000 (midline), 92,000 (upper band)

• Volume: continuously shrinking, market sentiment cautious

Ethereum (ETH):

• Daily level: bottoming around 2,600, but rebound weak

• DeFi TVL: from 120 billion to 90 billion, clear outflow of funds

• Key support: 2,400 (strong support), 2,200 (extreme support)

• Key resistance: 2,800 (midline), 3,200 (upper band)

Overall judgment:

• Short-term (1-2 weeks): oscillating downward, Bitcoin testing support at 78,000

• Mid-term (1-3 months): wide fluctuation between 75,000 and 92,000, awaiting Fed’s direction

• Long-term (2026 full year): bullish! After institutional accumulation, main rally to start in Q2–Q3

V. 2026 Opening Strategy: Defensive Counterattack, Focus on Core!

In 2026, the crypto world will enter the **"Infrastructure is King"** era. Don’t expect 100x coins—survival is the key!

Strategy 1: Strict position control, cash is king

• Current position: no more than 30%

• 20% in BTC/ETH spot: keep bullets for adding at 75,000

• 10% in DeFi lending: Aave, Compound for stable yields (6-8% annualized)

• 60% in USDT/USDC: wait for black swan, crisis = opportunity

Strategy 2: Focus on core assets, avoid junk coins

• Only buy BTC and ETH: institutions only recognize these two, others are noise

• Altcoin positions <5%: stricter regulation in 2026, 90% of altcoins will zero out

• RWA tokenization: focus on compliant platforms (like Backed Finance) for government bond tokens

Strategy 3: Use volatility, buy low and sell high

• Above 85,000: sell in batches, lock in profits

• Below 78,000: buy in batches, buy more on dips

• Around 75,000: go all-in, risk everything

Strategy 4: Hedge risks, prevent black swans

• Yen rate hikes: before March, hedge against yen arbitrage unwind risk

• Stablecoin de-pegging: if USDT drops below 0.95, switch to fiat immediately

• US stock crash: if Nasdaq drops below 15,000, BTC will inevitably fall too, reduce positions early

VI. Key Focus Today: These signals determine the direction!

• 16:00 Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI: below 45, euro weakens, dollar strengthens, bearish for BTC

• 21:30 US December ISM Manufacturing PMI: below 50, recession expectations rise, bullish for BTC (safe haven)

• 23:00 Fed officials’ speeches: any hawkish comments will trigger short-term plunge

Monitor these data points in real-time, and interpret them live!

Interaction time: In 2026, how are your positions?

On the first trading day of 2026, your status is:

A. Full position all-in: believe in new year, go all out

B. Half position and wait: leave room for clarity

C. No position, wait for 75,000 to buy the dip, do nothing now

D. Already cut losses: scared of 2025’s losses, run first

Comment your choice and reasons.

Remember: The market never lacks opportunities; what’s missing are prepared people. In 2026, I will be live all the way, guiding you through the fog to catch every wealth-creating opportunity!

Like, watch, share—let more crypto friends see this hardcore analysis! New year, new wealth—let’s unlock it together!

Disclaimer: The data in this article comes from public sources and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. DYOR, risk at your own discretion.