#比特币 BTC Year-End Closing, Is the Four-Year Cycle Broken?

2025 has officially ended, and Bitcoin has perfectly marked the last second of its annual line.

Bitcoin closed 2025 with a price below the start of the year, marking the first time in history that it experienced an annual decline one year after the halving. This has sparked intense discussions in the market about whether the "Bitcoin four-year cycle" has come to an end. Although the latest halving occurred in April 2024, BTC previously hit a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, but then experienced a significant pullback, currently down over 30% from the high, with the year's performance weakening.

Analysts point out that after the halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin all reached new highs in the following year, but this pattern has not continued in this cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly states that Bitcoin's decline in the year following the halving means the "four-year cycle is officially dead."

Investor Armando Pantoja believes that the addition of ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheets has made Bitcoin less driven by retail sentiment and more influenced by macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitical issues. However, there are differing opinions. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, says that the four-year cycle still exists but is no longer driven solely by "programmatic halving," instead unfolding in a new form.

Disagreements over Bitcoin's long-term cycle structure continue to grow.
2011: 🟢 +1,473%
2012: 🟢 +186%
2013: 🟢 +5,428%
2014: 🔴 -58%
2015: 🟢 +35%
2016: 🟢 +124%
2017: 🟢 +1,369%
2018: 🔴 -74%
2019: 🟢 +92%
2020: 🟢 +303%
2021: 🟢 +60%
2022: 🔴 -64%
2023: 🟢 +155%
2024: 🟢 +121%
2025: 🔴 -5%
2026: ❓

At this moment, let's not focus on minute or hourly charts, but start from a larger scale—monthly K-lines. What patterns do you see? Is volatility decreasing? Is the historical pattern of the four-year cycle shifting? (Personally, I believe it will be broken, and future fluctuations will follow more of the economic cycle patterns.)

How will this year's candlestick chart develop? No one can give a definitive answer. The only way is for everyone to participate—draw your own K-lines. On the first day of the new year, I wish everyone holding Bitcoin more and more, getting closer to financial freedom, and becoming rich, rich, rich!!!