Have you noticed that recently Bitcoin seems to have disappeared from exchanges, while Ethereum is packed to the brim? Don't worry, the truth behind this might be more interesting than it appears on the surface.

I analyzed on-chain data and found several interesting patterns—possibly the kind that even large holders want to keep low profile about.

**The Real Logic Behind the Bitcoin Reserve Plunge**

Exchange Bitcoin reserves have dropped to 2.5 million coins, which looks alarming at first glance. But here’s a key detail: during the same period, the amount of Bitcoin held long-term (non-liquid supply) hit a record high—14.8 million coins. What does this indicate? It’s not panic selling; rather, institutions are playing the long game. Public companies like MicroStrategy have accumulated 700,000 BTC in one go, a typical institutional allocation strategy.

During the December FOMC turbulence, Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000, triggering hundreds of billions in leveraged liquidations. Many retail investors were shaken out, but the true holders took the opportunity to buy the dip, further draining reserves from exchanges.

Another signal not to ignore: the Bitcoin premium on major US exchanges has been consistently negative, indicating that local investors are increasingly transferring assets into their own wallets. Coupled with the Fed’s dovish stance, self-custody might become the new normal by 2026.

**Why is Ethereum so full of exchange deposits?**

On the surface, Ethereum ETFs have been flowing in continuously over the past months, and products like Grayscale’s ETHE have become a safe haven for many. Institutional recognition of Ethereum is indeed rising. But “full” and “potential” are two different things—this could mean that volatility hasn’t fully settled, and liquidity demand remains strong.

Compared to Bitcoin’s “quiet transfer,” this enthusiasm for Ethereum instead reveals market expectations for short-term fluctuations. In other words, some people might still be waiting for an opportunity.