2026-01-01 20:21:08

The crypto market in 2026 is experiencing a transition between new and old cycles. Recent signals are quite interesting—the price fluctuations of mainstream assets and on-chain activity are beginning to diverge. There may be a larger value adjustment hidden behind this.

Let's look at some data to understand better. The Layer2 ecosystem of Ethereum grew by 37% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, while the gas fees for core DeFi protocols decreased by 22% year-over-year. On the surface, this appears to be a technical optimization, but essentially, developers are competing for limited capital through iterative technology. This game will likely intensify further.

Another major signal is the expansion of pilot programs for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in multiple countries. Behind frequent policy news, it indicates that the connection channels between compliant assets and the native crypto market are gradually opening up. This could be one of the most important variables this year.

However, there's a pitfall worth noting: market expectations and actual implementation often misalign. The current net inflow of institutional funds is only about 40% of the peak in 2021, and participation rates in governance proposals for some projects have been persistently low, indicating that the market is prone to overinterpreting short-term technological breakthroughs.

So, the question is—will the structural adjustment of the crypto market in 2026 be driven by technology, regulation, or ultimately depend on capital choices? The answer will determine the breakthrough paths in different directions.

ETH3.24%

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MidnightTrader

· 19h ago

Institutional funds only peak at 40%, this data is a bit of a punch to the gut. No matter how much hype, if the money doesn't come in, it's all for nothing. --- A 37% growth in L2 sounds appealing, but is it about competing for existing users? Honestly, it's just internal competition; developers need to recognize this. --- Most of the CBDC pilot expansions are just hype; truly connecting them will take ages, and the market always loves to celebrate years in advance. --- I'm laughing at the low participation rate in governance proposals. Many project teams don't even care, so how can investors believe they're serious? --- Capital choices, huh? They sound nice, but in reality, it all depends on whose narrative can deceive people most deeply. Technology and regulation are just along for the ride. --- Expectations and reality are always mismatched. Learning to coexist with the gap is more important than trying to predict the market these days. --- Again with "one of the most important variables," this phrase has been overused in the past two years. How about trying a new way to say it? --- 37% looks impressive, but being able to hold until mid-next year is already good; short-term data is the most deceptive. --- Honestly, by the time compliant assets are fully integrated, the coins you're holding now might already have changed hands.

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TokenTherapist

· 19h ago

Institutional inflow is only 40%？Really funny, that's why I'm still waiting for the next wave. --- Layer 2 up 37% sounds good, but a 22% drop in gas fees is just about fighting for traffic. Developers are getting serious. --- Central bank digital currency pilot? That’s probably a signal that they’re just waiting to take over... --- Technological breakthroughs are being overinterpreted again. The market remains so greedy. --- At the end of the day, isn’t it just about how capital chooses? Technology and regulation are just supporting roles. --- Low governance participation rate is really a red flag, indicating that no one truly cares about the project's direction. --- Mismatch between expectations and implementation happens every year, and this time it feels especially outrageous. --- Wait, is the growth of L2 and the decrease in gas fees a good thing or a bad thing? It’s a bit confusing. --- Opening up compliance channels sounds good, but when will it actually land in my account?

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 19h ago

Institutional funds only peak at 40%? Basically, it's still waiting, waiting for someone to make the first move. --- Layer 2 growth of 37% sounds great, but where is the real money? Everyone is on the sidelines. --- I remain cautious about expanding the CBDC pilot program by the central bank. Policy news is everywhere, but how quickly can it really be implemented? --- The idea of developers competing over capital stock is good, but essentially it's a fight for liquidity. The better the technology, the more they get to eat. --- The long-term low participation rate in governance proposals is a serious issue, indicating that major players are actually uncertain. --- Is it driven by technology or capital choice? I bet in the end, it still depends on who has more sufficient funding.

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