2026-01-01 21:22:11

In early 2026, Bitcoin reached a delicate position at $87,500. This is not only a key point on the technical chart but also a new starting point for the integration of traditional finance and the crypto market.

Recently, some industry insiders have made statements that sparked considerable discussion—claiming that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has ended. At first glance, this sounds quite shocking, but upon closer inspection, it’s quite interesting: historical data shows that from 2017 to 2021, BTC indeed followed a fairly regular four-year cycle. Now suddenly saying "it's dead," is this person truly insightful or just blinded by recent market movements?

From a technical perspective, the situation is indeed a bit tense. The RSI indicator has already signaled a warning, suggesting Bitcoin urgently needs to break upward to ease technical pressure. But there’s a problem—large-scale institutional capital inflows do provide more liquidity, but they also change the game rules. The era of retail dominance is gone, and today’s Bitcoin is more like a rope being pulled by multiple forces.

It’s important to note that technical indicators often lag behind market sentiment, and relying solely on RSI for decision-making can be risky. Moreover, the personal opinions of executives are ultimately just personal views; market consensus needs time to be validated. Coupled with black swan factors like Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions, the risk of flash crashes has never truly disappeared.

Whether $87,500 is a breakout point or a resistance level may need the upcoming market action to reveal.

BTC1.19%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

just_another_wallet

· 8h ago

Is the four-year cycle dead? Then my two years of HODL would be wasted, haha. Once institutions come in, the game rules change. How can retail investors play? So what if the RSI signal lights up? A single statement from the Federal Reserve makes it all useless. Stuck at 87,500, what exactly is going on... It's so frustrating to watch. Honestly, at this point, studying technical indicators is less useful than just reading the news.

View OriginalReply0

SelfMadeRuggee

· 8h ago

Is the four-year cycle dead? Laughs. Institutions just took over the retail investors, who are all just bagholders. The 87,500 level has been known to be a resistance for a long time, RSI is warning again, and we still have to watch the Federal Reserve's mood. The real black swan hasn't arrived yet. This time is different; the rules have been broken long ago. When institutions come in, the game rules have completely changed, and no one can predict now.

View OriginalReply0

SandwichDetector

· 8h ago

Institutional entry has changed the game; it's completely different from a few years ago. Is the four-year cycle dead? That's too absolute; history tends to repeat itself. Breaking the RSI is not scary; what's scary is a black swan—one policy and it's all over. I see the 87,500 level as just a trap. Ultimately, it's all about waiting for the Federal Reserve's stance; everything else is nonsense. Retail investors are now just prey being harvested by institutions; they've long lost their say. No matter how much technical analysis is hyped, it still depends on the market's actual liquidity.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropGrandpa

· 8h ago

Is the four-year cycle dead? I think this guy was knocked out by an airdrop. Institutions changing the rules, and retail investors still dare to go all-in—truly brave. At the critical level of 87,500, I'm just waiting to see who gets cut. RSI exploding doesn't mean much; black swans are always lurking. Rather than listening to experts talk, it's better to read the candlestick charts yourself.

View OriginalReply0

gas_fee_therapist

· 8h ago

Is the four-year cycle dead? Nonsense, when institutions come in, they just disrupt the retail traders' patterns. --- RSI lights up red and you're still discussing technicals, really thinking you're Soros. --- 87500 is just a number; the black swan is the real boss. --- Historical data looks good, but what's the use? Now it's a game for institutional players. --- Instead of listening to executives spouting nonsense, watch how the Fed moves. --- Breakout or resistance? Let the market speak for itself. Why are we, the little guys, worrying so much? --- More liquidity actually makes it easier to be harvested; that's the truth. --- Relying solely on indicators? I might as well roll dice. --- The era of retail traders is truly gone for good; just a moment of reflection.

View OriginalReply0

WenAirdrop

· 8h ago

Is the four-year cycle dead? Ha, that's a very absolute statement. Who dares to be so sure? Institutional entry has changed the game rules; retail investors like us have long become the background. Trouble. It's really hard to predict the @87500@ level; black swans can slap you at any time. RSI lighting up means following the trend? Then you're definitely going to get trapped. Wake up, everyone. The fusion of traditional finance and the crypto world is a good thing, but sufficient liquidity does not equal good profits. Any move by the Federal Reserve can lead to total loss; this is the biggest uncertainty. Talking about breakthroughs and then breaking through? The market consensus hasn't formed yet. Stay steady and don't be reckless.

View OriginalReply0

NervousFingers

· 8h ago

Is the four-year cycle dead? Laughs, retail investors are the ones truly dead --- The institution entering the market and changing rules has long been something to recognize. What’s the use of RSI lighting up? Black swans can strike at any time and mess you up --- 87500 is just this level, come on, choose a direction and stop hesitating --- Instead of looking at indicators, it’s better to watch the Federal Reserve’s face. That’s the real trump card --- Honestly, no one can predict accurately. It’s true that technicals are lagging. Right now, it’s just a tug-of-war between bulls and bears --- I agree that the theory of retail investors being dead is valid, but that doesn’t mean there’s no opportunity. It all depends on who’s got the blackest heart --- Black swans can cause flash crashes just by saying hello. What are we talking about cycles for? That’s a bit naive --- Personal opinion ≠ market consensus. This brother should understand this principle

View OriginalReply0