2026-01-02 00:10:16

The Federal Reserve's moves are about to clear the fog—does the room for rate cuts really still exist?

After the news on January 2, 2026, the Fed still kept interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range, only cutting 25 basis points at the end of the year before starting to brake. No matter how loud the market calls for easing, the central bank clearly has no intention of following suit this time.

The December dot plot data makes it very clear: Fed officials expect only another 25 basis points cut for the whole year, with the final rate likely to be around 3.4%. In other words, this is just a slight adjustment. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to stick at 2.4%, and GDP growth remains steady at 2.3%. This combination signals to the market— the economy is still solid, and there's no need to rush into easing.

Wall Street's major investment banks have varied opinions. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are more optimistic, calling for two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each, ending up at 3.00%-3.25%; JPMorgan Chase is more conservative, expecting only one 25 basis point adjustment. But others are more firm—some insist on "zero rate cuts," some dream of a significant 150 basis point cut, and some hope the new chair will "get serious"—after all, Powell's term ends in May, and the popular successor Haskett is known for supporting rate cuts.

Moody's takes a more aggressive stance, betting on a combination of three 75 basis point cuts, reasoning that employment might soften and political pressure could force easing. However, this view is still somewhat niche. The reality is: inflation remains sticky, and economic resilience persists. Unless the unemployment rate breaks above 4.7% and inflation quickly returns to the 2% target, the Fed will continue with a "slow-motion" rate cut pace.

The FOMC meeting on January 27-28 is coming up, and the true face of the new dot plot will soon be revealed—will the market see a "dovish frenzy" or a "hawkish continued dominance"? Stock traders and borrowers should pay close attention—this could be the turning point in the market. #Strategy加码BTC配置 $FIL $ZBT

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SerNgmi

· 15h ago

The Federal Reserve is really being hijacked by the market; there’s no room left for rate cuts. It all depends on whether they can surprise us on January 27th. The key is whether Powell steps down and Hassett takes over; otherwise, the rate cut dream is just a dream. Inflation stubbornly sticks around, and the economy remains robust. Unless the unemployment rate skyrockets, it’s all nonsense. Adding more BTC has to wait until this policy turning point is confirmed; otherwise, jumping in now is a bit risky. Listening to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley’s rhetoric is just for reference; Moody’s aggressive outlook is basically a fantasy. How can they lower the rate from the current 3.4%? The market just has to keep enduring. The real watershed is the FOMC meeting on January 27-28; that’s when the true story will unfold. This rate-cut cycle is basically over; it all depends on whether political pressure can trigger a new wave. We crypto enthusiasts are just waiting for the Fed to loosen its stance; otherwise, sideways trading remains the norm.

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DegenRecoveryGroup

· 15h ago

Damn, it's another rate hike, and the room for rate cuts has shrunk directly. This pace is really frustrating. Powell really refuses to budge, inflation remains sticky and unchanged. The January 27 meeting was probably dominated by hawkish voices. By the way, increasing BTC holdings is indeed a good move. In this high-interest-rate environment, digital assets might actually have a chance. Let's wait and see. Everyone's betting on a new chairperson, but I don't think the probability is high. Don't expect significant rate cuts in the short term; just play it safe.

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GhostChainLoyalist

· 15h ago

The Federal Reserve is still being a hardliner this time, the market is shouting themselves hoarse but they won't budge. Let's just wait and see the show on January 27th. Is it possible to tough it out and add to BTC? It feels a bit risky to enter now. If the hawks continue to hold their position, the crypto market will cool down completely, which makes me a little scared. Will Hasset really take serious action once he takes office? That’s the key. Inflation remains sticky, and it's time to wake up from the interest rate cut dream.

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GasWaster

· 15h ago

ngl fed's gonna keep us hostage at these rates... meanwhile i'm out here calculating whether it's worth bridging to arbitrum rn or just eating the gas and staying put

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 15h ago

The Federal Reserve's move is just delaying time. To put it simply, they are still reluctant to loosen monetary policy. Let's wait for the January 27th meeting; by then, we'll know if the rate cut is real or just playing us.

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WinterWarmthCat

· 15h ago

The Federal Reserve is really being conservative this time, with the rate cut room completely blocked. --- What can Hasset do? It still depends on the data. --- Inflation is sticking stubbornly, no wonder Powell refuses to loosen his grip. --- FOMC on the 27th-28th, this is the real dividing line. --- A 150 basis point cut? Dream on, Moody's expectations are too optimistic. --- Adding more BTC is correct, but we should wait until this wave of fog clears. --- Morgan Stanley has cut interest rates twice, which still feels like the most realistic expectation. --- The economic foundation is solid, but the Federal Reserve just doesn’t want to loosen. --- Zero rate cuts vs. large cuts, the moderate approach is the way to go. --- Unemployment rate breaking through 4.7%? That’s when the Federal Reserve will really get serious.

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FalseProfitProphet

· 15h ago

The hawks continue to sit tight, really. The Federal Reserve's move is just dragging us out... They’re just fine-tuning here, might as well not adjust at all. Wait, is Hasset about to hike rates again? This plot is a bit hard to predict. Can BTC hold until the 27th? I'm skeptical.

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