BlackRock 2026 Outlook: AI Wave Drives Economic Growth, Inflation and Leverage Risks Rise Simultaneously

BlackRock (BlackRock) stated in the 2026 Market Outlook report that entering 2026, AI investments continue to support economic growth on one hand, while amplifying inflation, debt, and financial leverage risks on the other, creating a more evident tug-of-war in monetary policy. Currently, AI development is dominated by a few tech giants, and capital decisions are sufficient to influence the overall economy. Market concentration continues to rise, and traditional risk diversification strategies are losing effectiveness. Against the backdrop of simultaneous reshaping in energy, electricity, geopolitics, and financial systems, BlackRock believes 2026 will be a pivotal year for the recalibration of the global economy and markets.

AI Capital Wave Accelerates, Global Economy Faces Capital Limit Test

BlackRock points out that global AI-related capital expenditure could reach between 5 and 8 trillion USD by 2030, with investments highly concentrated in the United States. Compared to historical technological revolutions like the steam engine, electricity, or the internet, AI construction is significantly faster with higher capital density, potentially reaching the largest investment scale in history in less than half the time of past revolutions.

This inevitably raises a core question for the market:

“Can such massive upfront capital investment generate proportionate revenue in the future?”

BlackRock emphasizes that this is the most critical variable in the 2026 investment environment.

Growth Momentum Remains, Inflation and Policy Tug-of-War Continues

Looking ahead to 2026, BlackRock expects AI capital expenditure to remain a key driver of US economic growth, contributing several times the historical average to GDP. Even if the labor market continues to cool, the overall economy may still maintain growth momentum.

In this context, BlackRock believes the Federal Reserve (Fed) still has room to adjust interest rate policies in 2026. However, the report also warns that inflation may remain above the 2% target. If business confidence or hiring momentum rebounds, policy will again face a tug-of-war between inflation pressures and debt sustainability.

AI Is Expected to Break Economic Growth Ceiling, Patent Numbers Are Key

Reflecting on the US economy over the past 150 years, BlackRock notes that despite the steam engine, electricity, and digital revolutions, the long-term per capita GDP growth rate has consistently hovered around a 2% trend line, never truly breaking through.

But this time, BlackRock believes “it is theoretically possible for the first time.” The reason is that AI is not only a new technology but could also accelerate the pace of innovation itself. If AI can generate, test, and improve new concepts autonomously, it could drive breakthroughs in materials science, drug development, and technology, forming a self-reinforcing cycle of innovation.

However, BlackRock also emphasizes that it is still uncertain whether this will truly happen and continues to monitor leading indicators such as “whether patent numbers increase significantly.”

Tech Giants as Key Variables, Micro Decisions Drive Overall Performance

BlackRock points out that AI development is mainly led by a few large tech companies, whose capital expenditures are large enough to influence the overall economic trend. In the best-case scenario, if total AI investment reaches 8 trillion USD, analysts estimate that revenue growth from cloud and large tech companies, relying solely on existing businesses, would be insufficient to support a reasonable return of 9% to 12%.

Nevertheless, BlackRock also notes that the true potential of AI is not limited to existing product lines but could create entirely new revenue streams and gradually diffuse throughout the economy. This means that which companies can truly benefit from AI revenue will become a highly proactive choice issue, rather than something that passive index investing can solve.

Leverage Rising Simultaneously, Financial System Under Pressure

BlackRock states that AI development has a structural characteristic of “concentrated upfront investment with delayed revenue realization,” forcing companies to increase leverage to bridge funding gaps. Currently, the balance sheets of large tech firms remain relatively healthy, and market reactions to their bond issuance are positive. However, the problem is that all this is happening against the backdrop of “government sectors already heavily indebted.”

BlackRock believes that synchronized leverage increases in public and private sectors will push up overall interest rate pressures, causing the term premium (Term Premium) on long-term government bonds to rise, and heighten the financial system’s sensitivity to “sudden jumps in yields.” This is also the main reason why BlackRock maintains a relatively conservative stance on long-term US Treasuries in 2026.

(Note: Term premium refers to the risk compensation demanded by investors for bearing interest rate uncertainty, inflation risk, and capital lock-in risk. It reflects not a forecast of policy rate direction but the pricing of risks associated with locking funds in longer maturities.)

Emerging Structural Bottlenecks, Energy, Defense, and Finance Reshaping Simultaneously

Finally, BlackRock points out that the biggest current limitations for AI development are not chips but land, electricity, and power grids. The report estimates that by 2030, data centers in the US could account for 15% to 25% of national electricity consumption, far exceeding current grid access and approval speeds. In comparison, China’s progress in power construction, transmission, and energy manufacturing is faster, giving it a structural advantage in AI infrastructure deployment.

At the same time, BlackRock judges that the world has entered the third post-war international order, with US-China competition expanding into technology, energy, and defense. AI is seen as a core factor for future economic and military advantages. In finance, the market value of stablecoins has surpassed 250 billion USD and is gradually becoming a bridge connecting traditional finance and digital finance. The 2025 passage of the (GENIUS Act) marks an important and moderate step toward tokenization of the financial system.

Goldman Sachs 2026 Market Outlook: Economy Still Growing, AI Investment Momentum Slowing

This article, BlackRock 2026 Outlook: AI Wave Drives Economic Growth, Inflation, and Leverage Risks Rise Simultaneously, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.