Precious metals have indeed been hot these days. Gold has surpassed 2170, and silver has surged even more sharply by 3.5%, with market sentiment clearly ignited. Looking at it broadly, the core logic behind this rally isn't complicated—markets are heavily betting on the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle, and a weakening dollar naturally paves the way for gold. It sounds reasonable, but the question is, how long can this expectation hold? A question mark.

Even more interesting are the behind-the-scenes drivers. Global central banks have been aggressively buying gold last year, accumulating over 1200 tons. China's central bank has even maintained its holdings increase for 18 consecutive months. This isn't just retail speculation; it's strategic stockpiling, effectively welding a solid floor under gold prices. Such a level of capital flow has indeed shifted the market's focus.

Silver has risen even more fiercely than gold, driven by "dual engines." On one hand, its traditional safe-haven attribute remains relevant amid ongoing international uncertainties. On the other hand, industrial demand is strong—fields like photovoltaics, semiconductors, and new energy are all competing for silver, creating robust demand. However, the silver market is small, meaning it can rise quickly but also fall sharply. The thrill and risk often go hand in hand.

But think calmly—there are quite a few risks. First, the Federal Reserve's policy shift could happen at any time; once the rate cut expectations collapse, a chain reaction could follow. Second, technically, the rally has already gone a bit over the top, leaving room for a short-term correction. Third, if geopolitical tensions ease, safe-haven sentiment could evaporate in seconds, and capital flow might suddenly change.

What will the gold market look like in 2026? The long-term logic still holds—rate cut cycles, ongoing central bank purchases, and strong industrial demand are solid supports. But in the short term, the market is likely to follow a "rollercoaster" pattern, not a straight upward climb. For ordinary investors, the strategy is quite clear: don't go all in, and don't bet your entire wealth. Staggered positioning is the best way to survive longer.

What do you think about this gold market rally? Do you believe it can go higher, or do you think a correction is coming?