Who can understand? Staying up every night staring at Bitcoin charts, only to realize that exchange rates are the real hidden killer. Many people think, "I just trade cryptocurrencies; exchange rates have nothing to do with me," but the truth hits back quickly.

Recently, I met a guy who made $800 trading ETH, excitedly preparing to convert back to RMB. But when the exchange rate fluctuated, the amount he received was directly reduced by over 500 yuan. He said this feeling is even worse than being liquidated on a futures contract—at least with liquidation, you know it’s due to your own mistake; this is just a feeling of helplessness.

Where is the problem? Many people don’t realize that the macro change of RMB appreciation actually runs through the entire crypto industry chain. Take mining machine production as an example: domestic mining machine manufacturers make money through exports. Originally, a mining machine’s profit was 2000 yuan. After RMB appreciates, foreign buyers need to spend more local currency to buy the same machine, resulting in bargaining or fewer purchases. Manufacturers’ profits shrink, which may lead to layoffs or cuts in R&D budgets, affecting the entire supply chain upstream and downstream.

A deeper issue is that export restrictions lead to a decline in domestic economic vitality. People’s money becomes tighter, and at this point, the liquidity and enthusiasm of the entire crypto market will also be affected. This is not alarmist; it’s the real market logic.

So if you hold large amounts of USD assets or other foreign currency positions, exchange rate risk is really worth paying attention to. It’s not about being tense all the time, but at least having this awareness: the final hurdle for gains is the exchange.