The market has recently been collectively fantasizing about a "rate cut feast," but that story may be about to fall apart.

The blueprint for rate cuts in 2026 painted by investment banks sounds beautiful: a 25 basis point cut in March, another in June, then ample liquidity and soaring assets. The problem is, the Federal Reserve simply isn't cooperating that much. The latest dot plot shows only one rate cut forecasted for 2026. Sticky inflation and economic resilience make the Fed's stance much more cautious than the market imagines.

Look at the current market situation: the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen below 45%, in other words, this is no longer a certainty. It's like betting on heads in a coin flip—completely a gamble.

If a rate cut actually happens, historical experience tells us how funds will flow: first benefiting government bonds, then growth stocks and tech stocks, with high-risk assets usually coming last. Cryptocurrencies are right at the end of this chain, enjoying emotional premiums, but their volatility will be amplified infinitely. When prices rise, it's a crazy roller coaster; when they fall, it's equally intense.

Rather than being driven by market optimism, it's better to focus on what truly matters: inflation data and economic fundamentals. As soon as the Fed signals a slightly hawkish stance, overly bullish markets will catch a cold. Those heavy positions based on "rate cuts are inevitable" tend to underestimate the risks significantly.

The key question now is: do you want to position yourself early before the official rate cut announcement, or wait for real signals before taking action? Behind this choice lies an understanding of risk.