RIVER has recently exhibited an interesting contradictory phenomenon — on the surface, the 4-hour chart looks like a fierce rally, but in reality, the seeds of a sharp decline have already been sown.

**Clues in the current situation**

The current price is 16.929 USDT, which has stabilized above the EMA9 (14.517) and EMA20 (11.880), seemingly under bullish control. But a closer look at the 24-hour high of 17.8 USDT shows multiple attempts to break through that level, all failing. This is the first warning sign — stagnation. The upward momentum is weakening.

The MACD indicator provides further insight. Although DIF (2.780), DEA (2.228), and MACD (0.552) are still positive, the red histogram is continuously shrinking, indicating that the upward force is clearly waning. This situation often signals a bearish divergence — prices are making new highs, but the momentum is weakening.

Volume also vividly illustrates the issue. From a previous surge of 32.9M to the current 4.65M, the decline is stark. Retail investors’ enthusiasm for chasing highs has completely dissipated. With no new buying pressure entering the market, can the price continue to rise?

**How will the price move? Three stages**

Data shows that a large holder has sold off 13.94M USDT worth of tokens within 7 days, with an average cost around 14 USDT. This is critical — large holders’ distribution often marks a turning point.

Looking ahead 12-24 hours, the price is likely to fall from the current 16.929 USDT back to the 14-15 USDT range. The reasons are simple: the stagnation on the 4-hour chart, waning MACD momentum, and the selling pressure from large holders, all stacking the odds of a decline at about 95%.

What if the 14 USDT support level is broken? That’s a dangerous signal. Because it’s the average cost line for large holders, breaking below it could trigger a cascade of stop-losses among retail investors. With 70.11% of the tokens held by whales, the market’s absorption capacity is extremely fragile and cannot sustain the fall. Therefore, within 24-48 hours, the price could rapidly slide to 10-12 USDT.

Looking at a longer 3-7 day cycle, RIVER might eventually return to the 7-9 USDT range. This zone represents the true value after removing the pump-and-dump bubble. In extreme cases, it’s even possible to revisit the initial surge point of 3.79 USDT, though that scenario is quite extreme.

**Practical trading advice**

If you are still in a long position, your stop-loss should be set at 16 USDT — the support level where EMA9 and the price are closely aligned. If the price falls below the 14 USDT cost line, don’t hesitate — exit all positions immediately.

For those considering shorting, a small position can be established in the 16.5-17 USDT range, with a stop-loss at the 24-hour high of 17.8 USDT, and a target of 14 USDT.

Finally, a word of caution for those looking to bottom fish: do not buy above 14 USDT. Wait until the price truly drops below 10 USDT and volume stabilizes before cautiously trying small positions. The previous stage is not your opportunity.