The overall cryptocurrency market in January 2026 remains neutral with a slight bearish bias. The first half of the month is characterized by deleveraging, low liquidity, and tax harvesting, ending with these themes. In the second half, attention shifts to CPI data and regulatory catalysts, which may trigger a weak rebound but are unlikely to break the range-bound oscillation. The key support level is at $87,000, along with ETF fund inflows. Without a volume breakout, the market is expected to continue its weakness.

Core Signals (as of 2026-01-03 11:20 UTC+8)

- Price and Sentiment: BTC around $88,000, with 24-hour volatility; the start of the year sees a "liquidation wave" (approximately $228 million), with leveraged positions being rapidly cleared, ETF funds net outflows, and market sentiment subdued.
- Liquidity: Holiday trading is light, volatility is easily amplified, funds prefer low-volatility assets, and crypto capital is noticeably flowing out.
- Technicals: BTC drops below $89,000, with a weekly bearish alignment; ETH repeatedly tests the $3,000 level, with insufficient volume and weak rebounds.
- Key Data Points from Jin10:
- Whales: Large BTC transfers mostly involve reductions, with clear selling pressure from MEME and altcoins; ETH whales are accumulating against the trend, but the sector remains weak.
- Contracts: Futures open interest slightly rebounds but funding rates remain low; both bulls and bears are cautious, with no consensus on a breakout.
- Regulation: EU’s MiCA fully implemented, increasing compliance costs; US CLARITY bill enters review, unlikely to be enacted soon, which is a long-term positive.
- Macro: The Fed’s January FOMC meeting leans hawkish, with rate cut expectations fluctuating, and liquidity outlook remains pressured.

Quick Overview of Bullish and Bearish Factors

- Bullish Factors: ① Expectation of three Fed rate cuts (medium-term liquidity boost); ② Progress of US regulatory legislation, accelerating compliance; ③ Institutional accumulation at lows, long-term allocation unchanged.
- Bearish Factors: ① Deleveraging and tax harvesting continue into mid-January; ② ETF fund net outflows as institutions cash out at year-end; ③ Low liquidity amplifies volatility; ④ Low risk appetite leads funds to flow into traditional safe-haven assets.

Monthly Rhythm Assessment

- Early Month (1–10): Dominated by bearish sentiment. Deleveraging and low liquidity likely keep BTC oscillating between $85,000 and $89,000, with high risk of a pullback; altcoins and MEME tokens face greater selling pressure.
- Mid Month (11–20): Weak rebound window. CPI data and regulatory news may restore sentiment; focus on $87,000 support and ETF inflows, with rebound height dependent on volume.
- Late Month (21–31): Neutral oscillation. Liquidity recovers, and the battle between bulls and bears intensifies; without volume breakout, the range-bound pattern continues, making a strong trend unlikely.

Contract Trading Strategy Checklist

1. Mainstream Bullish Positions: BTC dips to $85,000–$87,000, stabilize with volume, set stop-loss at $83,000, target $89,000–$92,000, with position size ≤15%.
2. Altcoin/MEME Bearish Positions: Encounter resistance during rebounds, reduce volume and short, set stop-loss above previous high, target previous lows, with position size ≤10%, quick in and out.
3. Risk Management: Keep a close eye on ETF fund flows, futures open interest anomalies, and whale transfers; if key levels are broken without volume, reduce positions immediately.