2026-01-03 03:23:59

Speaking of the halving market, the previous sentiment everywhere in the market was "push to 300,000, 500,000 USD." Now? Analysts are starting to calm down, even becoming somewhat pessimistic. Bitcoin's rally story has shifted from "mania" to "rationality."

**Institutions are "calling out," and expectations of halving are no longer a joke**

Standard Chartered recently changed its stance. They cut their 2026 Bitcoin target price from $300,000 directly to $150,000. The reason? The institutional funds coming in are not as much as expected, especially through ETF channels. Bernstein's view is similar—$150,000 by the end of 2026, possibly reaching $200,000 by the end of 2027.

What's more interesting is that both institutions point out that Bitcoin may be moving away from the "four-year cycle, with wild swings" pattern, and is evolving into a more stable, resilient long-term growth trajectory. In other words, Bitcoin is one step closer to being "digital gold."

**But the market still has disagreements, just no longer purely based on hype**

Of course, opinions are not entirely uniform. Optimists like Fundstrat still see $200,000 to $250,000. On the other side, conservatives believe $110,000 to $135,000 is the ceiling. The gap seems significant, but where is the difference? This time, no one is purely speaking based on emotion. Everyone is looking at hard indicators like capital flow data and ETF inflow scales, rather than just wild speculation.

**Behind rationality, the teeth of risk are still there**

Although predictions have cooled down, technical risks have not disappeared. Some analysts warn that if history repeats, Bitcoin could still experience a significant correction. Rationality does not mean zero risk; this is basic common sense.

BTC0.31%

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bridge_anxiety

· 1h ago

Haha, from 300,000 to 150,000, this turnaround is really something... The institutions' move this time is truly a textbook-level facepalm.

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tokenomics_truther

· 11h ago

This time, the institutions finally didn't just talk big; the data speaks louder and is much more reliable than just shouting slogans.

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rekt_but_resilient

· 11h ago

From 300,000 halved to 150,000, the speed of this reversal is incredible. The institutions really slapped their own faces hard this time. --- It's called "rational" in a nice way, but actually it's just a failure of expectations management. They were shouting too aggressively before. --- Is there not that much ETF capital inflow? That's the real situation. Retail investors' enthusiasm can't keep up with the institutions' ambitions. --- The term digital gold sounds pretty good; at least it's more stable. Compared to the daily fluctuations of tens of thousands of dollars, this is less chaotic. --- The 110,000 to 135,000 ceiling theory, I think it's doubtful. We need to wait and see on the technical side. --- It's an improvement that they've stopped purely shouting, but I still have some doubts whether this cycle will truly break the four-year pattern. --- Rationality is rationality, but we must always be alert to the risk of a correction. The repeated warnings of history repeating itself are always shocking. --- Fundstrat still dares to call for 200,000-250,000? Either the data is really solid, or they're just betting on continued institutional relay. If the bet is wrong, it will blow up.

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gas_fee_therapist

· 11h ago

300,000 down to 150,000, the level of face-slapping is truly unmatched. Institutions are starting to talk about data and ETFs, it feels like the crypto circle is finally maturing. The gap between 150,000 and 250,000 is neither big nor small; anyway, I just can't understand it. Rationality is good, but when it really crashes, no one can save it—that's the key. From chaos to stable growth, the flavor of digital gold is becoming stronger and stronger, it's a bit boring.

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SandwichTrader

· 11h ago

300,000 down to 150,000, paying that kind of IQ tax is a bit outrageous Institutions are also starting to back down; they were so confident before, but now they change their tune so decisively If Bitcoin really becomes stable, it would actually be less interesting Digital gold? Feels like just an excuse for no growth potential Rationality is useless; when it drops, it's still just as tragic

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 11h ago

Really, this wave from 500,000 to 150,000 is a pretty strong slap in the face haha. Luckily, I didn't get on board with those traders calling for buy-ins, or else I'd be green in the face now. Institutional funds are not as fierce as imagined, this is the truth. We retail investors are just confused by these expectations. But on the other hand, stable growth sounds like a good thing, but it also kills the passion. Digital gold? It sounds like I have to hold it and sleep with it for the long term. The difference between 110,000 and 250,000 is so big, reliable analysis must be based on data. Those pure hype calls before should be removed from the list. After all, history tends to repeat itself, so I still need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback. The premise of being rational is not to lose money, don’t mess up.

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