When the US national debt surpasses 38 trillion dollars and Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio soars to 230%, this is no longer just an economic news story—it's a life-and-death issue for the crypto market.

Let's start with the data. What does it mean when global debt exceeds 235% of GDP? The entire world is living on borrowed money, with the US and Japan as the main players in this "lending race." The US's 38 trillion dollar debt divided among every American amounts to $100,000 per person, essentially overdrawing on dollar hegemony. Borrowing new debt to pay off old debt, with global funds continuously flowing into US bonds—this is the key.

Once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and shrinks its balance sheet, capital will flow back to the US, and high-risk assets will be the first to be drained. Bitcoin's recent volatility and downward trend are driven by this logic.

Looking at Japan's situation is even more painful. With a debt of 9 trillion dollars and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 230%, in other words, earning 100 yen a year means repaying 230 yen in debt. Coupled with severe aging issues and a significant labor shortage, Japan's economy is sluggish. The Bank of Japan can only print money to sustain the debt—this "drinking poison to quench thirst" game will eventually backfire. If the yen crashes, global risk aversion will ignite, gold and US Treasuries will be fiercely sought after, and what about cryptocurrencies, high-risk assets? The outcome is predictable.

This is not alarmist talk but a serious issue that must be addressed under the current liquidity landscape. Blindly chasing hot coins is no different from swimming in shallow waters before the big wave arrives.