#Strategy加码BTC配置 $PEPE $SHIB $DOGE

🔥The US economic outlook shifts suddenly: tariff easing + cash subsidies, will 2026 bring a miracle of growth or hidden risks?

🪙Entering 2026, US economic policies are quietly changing course. Faced with public complaints about living costs, Washington has shifted from a hard-line tariff approach to releasing cash flow. This combination—lower tariffs while issuing rebates—can it truly push GDP growth above 3%?

【Major Tariff Policy Reversal: From Pressure to Negotiation】

Just look at recent actions. The US has delayed tariffs on furniture and cabinets, which is just the appetizer. Wall Street is speculating that tariffs may change tactics in 2026—shifting from a simple trade tool to a bargaining chip. First, scare overseas companies with high tariffs to attract them to invest in the US; then selectively relax tariffs to ease the burden on ordinary families squeezed by high prices. Even officials responsible for fiscal policy are hinting that overusing this tactic is starting to lose effectiveness.

【Rebate Wave Arrives: Over 100 million people may each receive $3,000+】

More importantly, last year's tax reform caused many Americans to overpay on payroll taxes. By this tax season, over 100 million people are expected to receive tax refunds, averaging around $3,278. Analysts at JPMorgan compare this to a "replay of stimulus payments during the pandemic," which will directly stimulate consumption and add fuel to inflation. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that this alone could boost 2026 economic growth by 0.4 percentage points.

【Growth hopes vs hidden risks】

Optimistic voices are already calling for 3% to 3.5% growth in 2026, even describing it as a "new golden era." But the road is fraught with uncertainties:

First, the fiscal deficit will continue to widen. Large-scale money printing means government debt will keep increasing, potentially pushing up bond yields and, in extreme cases, triggering a debt crisis.

Second, geopolitical tensions could flare up at any time. If tensions in Europe or other key regions escalate, all economic forecasts could become invalid. International tensions are rising, and global economic certainty is decreasing.

Third, the risk of inflation rebounding. With so much cash circulating in the economy, the risk of prices rising again is significant. If inflation returns, will the Federal Reserve dare to continue cutting rates?

【What is the market thinking?】

From the perspective of the crypto market, this easing expectation can indeed boost the appeal of risk assets. But at the same time, if inflation materializes and the Fed is forced to turn hawkish, the market will react quickly. In 2026, the US economy is like walking a tightrope between stimulating growth and potential storms.

Will this experiment, ignited by tariff adjustments and cash subsidies, ultimately spark a fire of growth or trigger a new crisis?

💭 Do you think this US approach can succeed?