The crypto market wrapping up 2025 is like a roller coaster. Bitcoin has been stagnating and moving sideways, but Dogecoin unexpectedly made a big splash—open interest surged by 7%, yet the price reversed and dropped 0.8%. This bizarre scene of "bulls shouting to charge, but the price just lying flat and retreating" is normal for newcomers to be confused, while veteran traders are already frowning at it.

Let's first talk about Dogecoin's current data size. Open interest has already surged to $1.52 billion, and futures contracts have reached $12.25 billion. This scale is definitely top-tier among meme coins. According to conventional logic, a surge in contracts indicates traders are collectively bullish. But what happened? The price fell to $0.1227, and trading volume was cut by nearly 30%, leaving only $6.5163 billion. This divergence of "volume up, price down" definitely hints at some underlying tricks.

What does the technical analysis say? DOGE's RSI (Relative Strength Index) is now at 38. Experienced traders know that an RSI below 40 enters the oversold zone. From this perspective, the price has already fallen quite sharply, and there is theoretically room for a rebound. But the question is, why did the price drop while contracts increased significantly?

The most straightforward explanation is—this is very likely bulls building positions or hedging risks. When market sentiment is unstable, traders often increase their contract holdings to lock in risks or prepare for the next move. But this doesn't mean now is the best time to buy the dip. Oversold conditions don't necessarily guarantee a rebound; it also depends on specific technical support levels and the overall market environment. Whether DOGE is currently a bargain or just throwing money away still requires further observation of whether volume and price are aligned.