#价格分析预测 Looking at the latest prediction data from Polymarket, it's quite interesting. The probability of Bitcoin rising back to 100,000 within this year is only 11%, which indeed reflects the market's pessimistic outlook for a surge in Q4. In comparison, the probability of reaching 95,000 is 32%, and there's a 24% chance of dropping below 80,000—this indicates that current traders are more concerned about sideways consolidation or slight corrections.

From on-chain data, this shift in prediction probabilities is likely supported by changes in whale fund flows. An 11% probability suggests about $9,000 of upside potential, meaning that over the remaining ten days, the daily average increase needs to exceed $600, which makes technical achievement more challenging. However, prediction markets themselves have liquidity and participant biases, so they cannot be directly equated with the true intentions of the spot market.

Recently, it is important to monitor large buy orders accumulating in the 85,000-90,000 range, as well as the net inflow and outflow data on exchanges. If whales start entering significantly, the probability could be adjusted accordingly.