2026-01-03 04:26:09

Last night, the PEPE price suddenly surged over 20%, seemingly another wave of market sentiment hype. But if you only interpret it this way, you miss the deeper logic behind it — this is actually a sophisticated game of capital.

American investors are leveraging the fact that cryptocurrencies are classified as "property" by the IRS for tax planning. They sell losing positions at year-end to offset gains for the year, reducing their tax burden, then immediately buy back at the start of the new year. On-chain data confirms this: a large amount of PEPE continues to flow into trading platforms concentrated in retail investors in the US. This is not blind FOMO, but a carefully calculated capital reflow.

However, the current tax window is only a short-term phenomenon. More interestingly, a historical cycle is ringing the bell — this has become a certain pattern in the crypto market.

Looking back over the past few years: in 2020, DOGE sparked the first Meme wave; in 2021, SHIB took over and exploded; in 2024, PEPE created a new legend. Every four years, the market produces a phenomenon-level Meme coin, driving retail enthusiasm and frantic capital inflows. Now, 2026 has arrived, with the Ethereum ecosystem upgrade imminent, and the market is eager to find a new narrative breakthrough. Is the next "Dog King" already brewing?

The macro environment also provides ample nutrients for this story. Non-farm payroll data, unemployment trends, Federal Reserve rate expectations — these factors are constantly influencing global liquidity in real time. Once US stocks strengthen due to easing expectations, the overflow of capital is likely to flow into high-risk assets in the crypto market. Meme coins, with high transmissibility and volatility, often become amplifiers of this sentiment, especially during phases when the market is seeking new narratives.

Of course, it’s important to stay calm: this remains a highly risky field. Any project could collapse overnight, and history offers no guarantees to later entrants.

The four-year cycle, combined with the tax window, ecological upgrades, and liquidity shifts, suggests that the story of 2026 could be more exciting than many imagine. But participating in this game always requires a clear awareness of risks.

(This article is for market observation sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing in crypto assets involves significant risks.)

PEPE8.86%

DOGE5.94%

SHIB1.69%

ETH0.51%

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GateUser-26d7f434

· 10h ago

Tax arbitrage sounds like a good theory, but can on-chain data really verify it so cleanly... I'm a bit skeptical. --- The logic of a dog king every four years, I feel it's a bit far-fetched, it seems like a post-hoc rationalization. --- Wait, are you saying that currently bottom-fishing PEPE is actually tax planning? Then doesn't that mean I, as a latecomer, am being trapped? --- The Fed's rate cut expectations are indeed a bit strong, but ultimately it's a gamble on human nature. --- The story in 2026 looks interesting, provided we make it to 2026 haha. --- This analysis looks professional, but I feel it's still just looking for reasons to justify the rise. When it falls back, everything is reversed. --- Can you dig deeper into the inflow of on-chain data into US platforms? Are there specific numbers? --- I believe in the cyclical nature of meme coins, but every time someone says this time is different, what’s the result? --- So should retail investors get in now or wait and see? No more beating around the bush. --- Talking about calm risk awareness sounds good, but when everyone is discussing PEPE, can anyone really stay calm?

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GweiObserver

· 10h ago

Tax arbitrage is indeed ruthless from this perspective, but can on-chain data really prove it? --- A meme king every four years—if this pattern really holds, isn’t it a bit too mystical? --- Americans are really clever with this move; retail investors can only follow suit. --- Capital outflows rushing into crypto? Come on, it’s just another signal of upcoming retail traps. --- Instead of studying cycles, it’s better to learn how not to lose money haha. --- The logic sounds right, but those entering are the ones getting cut. --- I don’t understand the story of 2026; anyway, just keep observing. --- On-chain data confirming the tax window from this angle really caught me off guard, learned something new. --- What’s the use of risk awareness? Greed has already emptied our brains. --- The four-year cycle sounds nice, but it’s actually just the whales causing trouble.

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ContractSurrender

· 10h ago

Tax arbitrage sounds good, but are Americans really that shrewd? Aren't they still getting exploited? Where is the next dog king? I feel like everyone is just following the trend now. How is the four-year cycle so accurate? It feels a bit magical. Wait, does on-chain data really confirm this? Could it be just hindsight bias? Instead of studying macro factors, it's better to understand the psychology of the whales—that's the true essence of meme coins. Risk awareness is talked about every year, but some still go all-in. I just can't quite understand it.

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ShitcoinConnoisseur

· 10h ago

Older sister, the four-year meme coin cycle is really about to get serious this time. I believe in tax arbitrage, but the key is that ordinary people simply can't copy the operations of institutions. What will be the next Dog King? It depends on whether Ethereum truly upgrades or not. The logic of liquidity overflow holds, but I'm just worried it will be another story of a well-told tale ending with the coin going to zero. Stay calm, stay rational. Risk awareness is something we talk about every year, yet we still keep hopping on board one by one.

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FUD_Whisperer

· 10h ago

Tax arbitrage logic sounds so sophisticated. Are most American retail investors really that smart? A four-year Meme coin cycle—why do I feel like every year someone is calling out the next skyrocketing project? The outflow of funds rushing into high-risk assets just sounds like an attempt to rationalize FOMO. Wait, it's already 2026... feels like time is flying. Ultimately, it still comes down to who can run faster; the bagholders will never outrun the whales.

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ChainWanderingPoet

· 10h ago

It's another tax arbitrage trick, Americans really know how to play --- A meme king every four years, will anyone take over this time? --- No matter how nicely you put it, it's still gambling. I'll just hold onto my ETH. --- On-chain data can indeed verify this; the Pepe tokens flowing to exchanges have definitely increased a lot. --- Risk awareness is bullshit; no one thought about this when they came in. --- What stories will happen in 2026? Honestly, it still depends on the Federal Reserve's stance. --- The next dog coin king has probably been targeted by some big whales long ago.

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LightningSentry

· 10h ago

Tax arbitrage is really clever, Americans are just sharp. But to be honest, I didn't jump on the PEPE wave; I just feel like the vibe of being the bag holder is too strong.

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