#价格分析预测 Seeing the discussions about the new QE and Bitcoin target prices, I want to share some thoughts.

Market expectations are high, but reality often takes time to materialize. Arthur Hayes's analytical framework—liquidity release → fiat currency depreciation → crypto asset benefits—this logical chain is valid in itself. However, the jump from the $80,000 range to $124,000 and then to $200,000 involves too many uncertainties that need to be digested.

The most interesting detail is that, while he is bullish, he transferred 508 ETH to exchanges. This behavior of "talking bullish but selling off" reminds us of a simple truth—no matter how smart an analyst is, when it comes to actual gains, pragmatic choices are inevitable.

For long-term holders, this is not a signal to panic; rather, it serves as a good mirror. The key is not how high the price can go, but whether your position can withstand the volatility during this process. Are you clear about your goals and stop-loss points in this cycle?

No matter how precise short-term price predictions are, they are less reliable than sticking to your investment discipline. Calm down, reassess your asset allocation, and ensure every investment is within your acceptable risk range. That is the most worthwhile thing to do in such a market environment.