#AI与加密货币结合 Seeing Bitcoin hold at $84,000, the first thought that flashed through my mind was—I've seen this position too many times before.

During the 2017 wave, I remember clearly how the support levels were repeatedly tested, each time like performing a familiar play. Back then, no one cared about central bank rate hikes; the market was purely driven by greed. Now, things are different. The fact that the Bank of Japan's rate hike didn't suppress Bitcoin suggests some logic worth pondering—real interest rates are still low, and liquidity is still searching for an exit.

What truly made me alert was seeing a bunch of altcoins lying dormant, only BCH still holding on stubbornly. This signal has appeared several times in history. During the 2018 bear market, there were always one or two assets that performed countertrend. What does that usually mean? The market is differentiating, and funds are choosing. I'm not optimistic about BCH making a comeback, but this kind of differentiation itself indicates what—big players are quietly reallocating their positions.

Concerns about the AI bubble, Tether CEO saying we won't see another 80% crash—sounds stable, but I've experienced too many "won't happen again" statements. The linkage between crypto and tech stocks is becoming tighter, which precisely indicates that risks are concentrated, not dispersed. Think about it—what do 2022 and 2018 have in common? Both were disillusionments in a hot sector.

I do believe in the adjustment period in 2026. Fidelity's forecast is valuable because they look at cycles, and on that point, we agree. But if you ask me, the wide target price range of $84,000 to $125,000 essentially says—no one can be sure what will happen in the middle.

The current issue isn't how high the price can go, but whether this cycle has genuine narrative support. The AI + crypto connection looks very attractive, but I haven't seen any project truly run this path successfully. Most are just concept hype. Looking back at history, in every major cycle, the ones that truly survive are never those with the most aggressive FOMO.

Holding at $84,000, the next key level is still $89,000. If we can't break through that, I will view the market more cautiously.