The domestic commercial aerospace sector has been booming over the past two years, but to truly identify investment opportunities along the industry chain, one must start with hard metrics like orders, products, and market share.

Let's first look at a leading company in the rocket telemetry and remote control field—an state-owned enterprise background, listed platform under China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, covering the entire electronic supporting chain from rockets to satellites. Why is it worth discussing? Because it directly ties into the core link of China's commercial aerospace.

**Positioning in Commercial Aerospace**

In the telemetry and remote control products for rockets, this company holds a 90% domestic market share, essentially a monopoly. This is not an exaggeration; that’s the figure. Looking at phased array antennas—the core supplier for China’s Xingwang low-earth orbit satellite internet—accounts for 60% of orders, with technology benchmarked against top foreign solutions and high barriers to entry.

How hot have orders been in recent years? In 2024, commercial aerospace orders exceeded 600 million yuan, and by 2025, its share jumped from 20% to 35%, with growth exceeding 50%. What does this mean? Commercial aerospace has shifted from a supporting role to a main growth driver.

**Deep Involvement in Rocket Launches**

The Long March series rockets (Fifth, Seventh, Eighth, etc.) are fully covered, with orders in 2024-2025 surpassing 800 million yuan. Besides the national team’s rockets, private rockets are also expanding: Zhuque-3, Xingyun series, all included in the supporting list. After the Hainan commercial launch site becomes operational regularly, launch frequency is expected to double again in 2026, meaning orders for rocket support equipment will grow like a snowball.

Even more impressive are onboard computers and inertial navigation systems—over the past few years, these products have grown from a 60 million yuan order scale to an expected 120 million yuan in 2026, doubling growth.

**Another Line of Satellite Support**

China Xingwang plans to deploy 12,000 low-earth orbit satellites, with the company’s delivery tasks in 2025 including supporting equipment for 200 satellites. Not only Xingwang, but also Jilin-1, Tianxian constellation, and other commercial satellite groups are using its products.

Laser communication terminals, once considered highly complex, are now being mass-produced. The price per satellite laser communication terminal ranges from 6 to 8 million yuan, with phased array antennas costing about 800,000 yuan each. In 2026, China Xingwang is expected to launch 1,300 satellites, and just these two items could generate over 144 million yuan in additional profit. This does not include orders from other commercial satellites.

**Performance Highlights**

Looking at 2025 estimates, mainstream institutions consensus expects net profit attributable to parent company between 570 million and 604 million yuan (EPS of 0.17-0.18 yuan), with conservative forecasts around 460 million yuan. Why did the first three quarters only reach 210 million yuan, yet the full year is expected to be so high? The third quarter alone saw revenue surge by 97.97%, with accelerated order deliveries. The fourth quarter is typically when military and commercial aerospace orders are concentrated and recognized—this is the main profit period of the year.

How much does commercial aerospace contribute? In 2025, orders for commercial aerospace exceeded 1.2 billion yuan (up 80% YoY), accounting for 10% of total revenue. Among these, rocket support accounts for 42%, satellite support 58%. The key is the gross profit margins of these businesses—testing and control business margins exceed 50%, far above the average.

Another detail: the company divested some inefficient cable assets, which improved net profit margin from 3.5% in 2024 to 4.1%. It may seem small, but in large enterprises, this is a clear efficiency improvement.

**2026 Will Be a Big Year for Performance**

Forecasts suggest net profit attributable to parent will reach 760-940 million yuan (up 33%-56%), with revenue growth exceeding 20%. This is based on four core drivers:

1. Explosive growth in commercial aerospace orders. Private rocket launches in 2026 will double, onboard computers and inertial navigation orders will increase by 100%. Satellite launches will be even more vigorous—China Xingwang plans 1,300 satellites annually, with related support demand multiplying. Laser communication terminal growth will exceed 50% annually.

2. Sufficient order backlog. As of the end of Q3 2025, inventory was 22.27 billion yuan (up 10% YoY), with order schedules extending into Q2 2026, so delivery pressure is manageable.

3. Asset optimization. The 940 million yuan asset swap will be completed in 2026, divesting inefficient assets and acquiring high-quality aerospace assets, which could boost overall gross margin by 2-3 percentage points, raising net profit margin to 4.9%.

4. Defense and unmanned systems as a safety net. Military electronics orders are fully booked, with 35 billion yuan worth of orders in 2025, accounting for 10%. Unmanned system revenue is expected to grow 30% (gross margin 28%), providing a performance floor.

**Performance Release Rhythm**

Orders began delivery in the first half of the year, with steady revenue growth (expected +15%), and profits gradually realized. The second half is the key—large orders (space launches, military acceptance) are concentrated and recognized, accounting for over 60% of annual profit, with even faster growth. This is the typical pattern for military stocks.

**Commercial Aerospace as a Second Growth Curve**

In 2025, commercial aerospace revenue accounts for 10%, but profits account for 15% (due to high gross margins). By 2026, revenue share will rise to 15%-20%, and profit share will exceed 25%. It has shifted from a fringe activity to a real growth engine.

**Risks to Watch**

The technological validation risk of private rockets exists. For example, if a rocket’s first-stage recovery underperforms, orders could be affected. The high inventory (222 billion yuan) and negative cash flow pose some impairment risks. Valuation is also a concern—current PE ratios are not cheap, and before full performance realization, there could be short-term volatility.

However, from an industry chain perspective, the shift from concept hype to real order implementation in commercial aerospace is tangible and underway.