2026 is just beginning, and the cryptocurrency market is standing at a delicate crossroads. Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around $90,000, seemingly calm on the surface, but undercurrents are surging—several macroeconomic variables are quietly rewriting the fate of the crypto world.

The most notable action comes from the Federal Reserve. At the December meeting last year, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the rate range at 3.5%-3.75%. The market is now calculating: will there be more rate cuts this year? CME data provides an answer—by June this year, the market believes there is a 96% probability of another rate cut. And not just once; the market generally bets that the Fed will cut rates three times in 2026.

What does this mean? Borrowing becomes cheaper. Capital, like a living thing, tends to flow toward the fastest-growing and riskiest areas. Cryptocurrencies naturally fall into this category. Some seasoned market analysts point out that loose monetary policy directly results in two outcomes: an increasing supply of "cheap dollars" in the market, and that they will be "around for a while." In this environment, risk assets like Bitcoin will become targets for capital competition.

Another factor is the weakening of the dollar itself. The US dollar index rebounded last year, but the trend has not truly reversed. Once the dollar continues to depreciate, Bitcoin's price in other currencies will appear higher, making it more attractive to international investors. Coupled with potential political factors overlaying the situation, the crypto boom this year is likely to last longer than market expectations. The key question is how investors should position themselves in advance.