The economic policies of the Trump administration may be heading for a major shift. Faced with rising prices and public discontent, the policy framework once known for "protectionism" is showing cracks—potentially lowering tariffs on one hand while launching large-scale tax rebate programs on the other. All of this points to a critical test for the U.S. economy in 2026.

**From Barriers to Leverage: Signals of Tariff Policy Softening**

The latest developments are worth noting: the U.S. government has delayed plans to impose tariffs on certain furniture and cabinets. What signals does this send? Wall Street analysts suggest that by 2026, tariffs may evolve from simple "barriers" into "negotiation tools." High tariffs could be used to pressure, followed by tax cuts as a means to ease inflation—a more flexible strategic combination. The latest statements from the Treasury Secretary imply that the effectiveness of high tariffs as a policy tool is waning, and markets should prepare for policy adjustments.

**"Tax Rebate Rain" Incoming: Over 100 Million Americans Will Receive Checks**

Even more stimulating is the tax rebate plan. Since the tax cuts from the "Big and Beautiful Act" took effect retroactively last year, many people's withholding taxes were not adjusted in time. As a result, during this year's tax season, over 100 million Americans are expected to receive rebate checks, with an average amount possibly reaching $3,278. This scale rivals the economic stimulus programs during the pandemic.

JPMorgan bluntly states: this money will directly boost consumer spending and inflation levels. The Congressional Budget Office's forecast is more specific—this move could push U.S. GDP growth in 2026 up by 0.4%. Wallets are indeed about to swell, but the question is, where will this money ultimately flow?

**The Tightrope of Growth and Risks**

Optimists have already raised their expectations. The forecast range for U.S. GDP growth in 2026 has been adjusted to 3.0%-3.5%, with a 60% probability of the "Roaring Twenties" returning. It sounds exciting, but risks cannot be ignored.

The threat of a debt crisis is real—U.S. Treasury yields could rise sharply, and market confidence in the country's debt capacity is being tested. Geopolitical black swan events (such as worsening European tensions) could invalidate all economic forecasts. Even more challenging is the potential recurrence of inflation—massive liquidity injections could reignite inflation pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates.

**What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market?**

Expectations of Fed rate cuts, liquidity shifts in Bitcoin, and the widespread rise of privacy coins—these market phenomena are closely tied to the direction of U.S. macroeconomic policies. Easing tariffs could improve the global trade environment, generally benefiting risk assets. Meanwhile, large-scale rebates and liquidity injections may drive increased demand for alternative assets.

In short, the U.S. economy in 2026 is walking a tightrope. Powerful fiscal stimulus coexists with potential inflation, debt, and geopolitical risks. This dual-engine experiment involving tariff adjustments and rebates will send ripples through global markets, including the crypto asset space.

What’s your take on this move? Seize the opportunity or brace for a crisis?