2026-01-03 05:25:32

The "4-year cycle" of Bitcoin is often spoken of as an absolute rule, but in reality, many cases confuse two different concepts. The certain rule is the "halving," which functions as a mathematical protocol embedded approximately every 4 years. On the other hand, the 4-year cycle itself is not necessarily inevitable.

The halving is a structural mechanism embedded in the Bitcoin blockchain, where miner rewards are periodically halved, reducing the supply. This is an absolute design rule and a mathematical fact that is unaffected by market psychology or external factors. Market cycles tend to revolve around this halving, but they do not necessarily synchronize perfectly. Understanding this distinction leads to more accurate market analysis.

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MemeEchoer

· 9h ago

Many people confuse the halving period with the 4-year cycle. In simple terms, it's just that mathematical patterns are being turned into mysticism. It's like using a Chinese almanac as a market analysis chart—you'll end up losing money sooner or later.

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SoliditySurvivor

· 9h ago

The halving period ≠ 4-year cycle. These two are too often confused. Math is fixed, but the market is alive, understand?

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DAOplomacy

· 9h ago

honestly the halving is the only real constant here... people conflate it with market cycles and then act shocked when price doesn't cooperate. path dependency cuts both ways, but yeah, distinguishing the actual protocol mechanics from the behavioral overlay? that's where most analysis falls apart. non-trivial gap between what's mathematically certain and what actually happens in markets.

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GraphGuru

· 9h ago

Halving period ≠ cycle, the difference is really big haha --- Here we go again, some people always treat halving as a myth, but it's actually just code that’s hardcoded --- People really love to make up stories, the 4-year cycle sounds cool so they believe it --- Mathematical规律vs market hype, they are always two different things --- This distinction is indeed important, misunderstanding it can lead to being cut off --- Basically, it’s about mixing certainty and uncertainty together --- I just want to ask, is the 4-year cycle really a规律 or just a historical coincidence? --- Halving is just halving, there's no need to dress it up with a 4-year cycle --- Got it, so we've been analyzing Bitcoin with the wrong mental model --- This is the correct way to understand it, stop being brainwashed by public opinion

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UncleWhale

· 9h ago

Half-life ≠ cycle, these two are often confused, which is really annoying.

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