#美联储降息政策 Seeing the recent policy movements of central banks worldwide, I want to share some observations with everyone. The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates again before June next year, and the Bank of England has also hinted at slowing down the pace of rate cuts—this reflects that central banks around the world are cautiously testing the waters, as the trajectories of inflation, employment, and growth are still unclear.

What does this uncertainty mean for us as investors? My advice is straightforward: don't overly bet on a single policy direction. Many people become aggressive in increasing their positions when they see signals of rate cuts, and then rush to withdraw when rate hike expectations emerge. The result is often being hit hard by the market’s pendulum swings.

I place more importance on controlling what I can—checking whether my portfolio allocation still makes sense, and whether I have excessive risk exposure in certain sectors. Central bank policies will eventually be implemented, but the market will experience volatility during the waiting process. Those who prepare in advance and keep their allocations balanced are often able to navigate these periods more calmly.

In the long run, a prudent asset allocation doesn’t need to be drastically adjusted due to a single central bank statement. The key is to ask yourself: if interest rates stay above 3% for a longer period, can my portfolio still withstand it? If rates are really cut further, have I seized this window? Having clarity in your mind makes your actions more measured.