#价格分析预测 Hayes's recent prediction logic is something I need to thoroughly understand. His core point is simply: the Federal Reserve's RMP is essentially still printing money. Once the market collectively realizes this is a form of QE, Bitcoin will need to be revalued. The range from 124,000 to 200,000 is very interesting—I’m not just throwing out random numbers, but based on a reasonable deduction from liquidity spillover.

The key point is in March. This is not the price top, but the peak period of market perception. Many people tend to misunderstand and think March is the ceiling, but Hayes is talking about the time window with the strongest expectations, and subsequent adjustments are normal. This is very important for followers—before and around March, they need to guard against high-leverage short positions getting squeezed, and also leave room for stop-losses.

I agree with setting 124,000 as a bottom support. It’s not an absolute bottom, but once broken, it indicates a change in the fundamentals. If you are chasing high positions, you should be aware of this level. My own follow-trade strategy will be adjusted as follows: maintain positions before March but diversify risk; once clear correction signals appear, gradually reduce positions, wait for bottom confirmation, then re-enter.

Hayes is also particularly optimistic about ENA. I currently don’t have a deep view on this, but it can be included in the observation scope. The key is not to let predictions from a single big player dictate your trading rhythm—predictions are ultimately just predictions. Discipline in execution and stop-losses always come first.