When will institutions sell their Bitcoin?

This question is actually quite interesting. Many large institutions hold BTC as digital gold, sitting on it long-term without moving. Comparing this to traditional gold's performance from 1971 to the end of 2025, the historical annualized return is about 8% (World Gold Council data). In other words, steady appreciation—don't expect to get rich overnight.

**Where is the average cost for institutions?**

The average buy-in price for Strategy is around $70,000, currently holding about 670,000 coins. BlackRock has been gradually accumulating since 2024, with an average cost close to $78,000, holding about 770,000 coins. Overall, the average cost for major institutions is around $74,000.

But there's a logical difference here—Bitcoin's risk profile is much higher than gold, so institutions are unlikely to aim for just gold-level 8% annualized returns. They are more interested in achieving higher total returns over a relatively short time frame, effectively compressing fifty or sixty years of gold accumulation into a few years.

**So, what is the target selling range?**

Following this logic backward, starting from a cost basis of $74,000, institutions might begin to reduce holdings after reaching a "reasonable return for digital gold." The most probable selling window is between $158,000 and $265,000—an increase of 114% to 258% from now. In other words, this corresponds to an annualized return of 25%-40% over five years, far exceeding gold but aligning with BTC's risk premium.

Interestingly, this predicted range aligns closely with BlackRock's implied target price of $150,000 to $250,000 for 2026-2027. If ETF inflows continue and supply remains tight, optimistic scenarios could push prices even higher.

**What is the current position?**

Currently, BTC is trading around $88,000 to $90,000, and most institutions are already sitting on a 20%-40% unrealized profit. But honestly, this is not enough to fully validate the "digital gold" thesis, so most institutions will likely continue HODLing until the return on that position looks more attractive.

Of course, BTC's volatility is much higher than real gold, and the timing of any reduction will depend on each institution's strategy. Strategy is mostly a hardcore HODL approach, while various ETFs tend to adjust their holdings flexibly based on investor inflows and outflows.

These are bold speculations based on gold's return logic; actual movements may vary due to regulatory changes, interest rate cycles, ETF inflow scales, and other factors. For thought only, not investment advice.