— A Veteran Investor's Ramblings

Last week, I caught up with Brother Zhou. He stared at his coffee cup for a long time and finally blurted out, "Bro, 8000U is almost gone." I thought he had been liquidated or his contracts had exploded, but he chuckled bitterly and said, "No leverage used, just trying to bottom fish and got caught."

A certain coin he liked dropped from 2U to 1U, halving in value. He thought "this price is brutal," and poured his entire position in. But the coin didn't stop falling; it kept dropping to 0.2U, and his account was wiped out to 1600U. Brother Zhou kept saying, "I really thought it was the bottom, but we're still halfway up the mountain."

**Why are these kinds of things so common in a bear market?**

**Misconception 1: The harder it falls, the closer to the bottom**

There are plenty of coins that get halved again and again in a bear market, but historical data shows—the real bottom is often deeper than you imagine. Judging the bottom by the percentage drop is basically blind jumping.

**Misconception 2: A single bullish candle means a reversal**

Occasionally, a big bullish candle appears in a bear market, but it's mostly a "fishing rod." It looks like a strong rebound, but it's actually a chance to reduce positions, not a signal to buy. The market manipulators in a bear market play psychological games; retail investors find it hard to outplay them.

**Misconception 3: Cheap equals worth buying**

Low price ≠ high value. These are two different things. Some projects are essentially castles in the air; even after dropping 90%, they could go to zero. What truly matters are assets with real business and the ability to survive cycles.

**3 Bottom Lines for Surviving and Leaving a Bear Market**

**First: Position management is always more important than timing**

Invest with idle funds, keeping the allocation within one-third of your total capital. If you’re using borrowed money or investing living expenses, that’s not investing—it's gambling.