Regarding stock investing, I want to share some recent thoughts. Ultimately, buying stocks is essentially buying a company. Being listed or not simply provides convenience for exit, but does not change the intrinsic value of the company itself.
To measure how much a company is worth, look at how much cash flow it can generate in the future. Discounting these future cash flows to today’s value is the intrinsic value of the company. As an investor, you should only buy when the stock price is significantly below this intrinsic value. As for what "significantly" means—whether a 40% discount, 50%, or another figure—completely depends on your other investment opportunities—that's the consideration of the margin of safety.
However, there's an easily overlooked point: calculating intrinsic value is not just a simple math problem. Using a calculator to precisely derive it is a misconception. It’s more of a way of thinking—a rational judgment about the company's future.
To accurately assess a company's value, you must first acknowledge your knowledge boundaries. Only invest in fields and companies you truly understand (the circle of competence principle); this is a prerequisite. At the same time, a "moat" is a key indicator of whether a company can maintain its competitive advantage over the long term. Corporate culture is often the deepest moat—it's hard to imagine a company with a diffuse culture building a real competitive barrier.
Finally, in the face of daily market fluctuations, maintaining rationality is very important. Regularly review your investment logic for each position and see if it still holds. These principles sound simple, but executing them is actually quite difficult.
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BearMarketLightning
· 8h ago
Uh... to put it simply, you still need to find a truly profitable business, don't be fooled by the numbers on the books.
It feels a bit like Buffett, but in reality, how many people can really stick with it? There are many times when you'll get slapped in the face.
As for the moat, I agree. The real challenge is figuring out which company's culture is genuinely deep and which is just pretending.
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SerumSqueezer
· 8h ago
To be honest, the capability circle is really crucial... I've seen too many people rely on calculators to hard calculate intrinsic value, only to be fooled by their own precise numbers.
Using a calculator? That's better than nothing, but it's even better to look at corporate culture and moat—these are the things that truly determine long-term trends.
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TokenomicsDetective
· 8h ago
Well said, but how many people can truly invest within their circle of competence... I'm just asking, can you clearly explain the cash flow model of the companies you currently hold?
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MevWhisperer
· 8h ago
Basically, you need to have your own circle of competence. Relying on mathematical models blindly is less reliable than understanding the company's culture.
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SolidityStruggler
· 8h ago
Honestly, trying to precisely calculate intrinsic value on-chain is just fooling oneself; it still comes down to intuition.
I have deep experience with the capability circle; only after stepping into many pits did I understand.
The moat is the most critical, but most people simply can't see it.
To put it nicely, there are very few who truly grasp the risks.
Discounted cash flow sounds professional, but in reality, it's just gambling on the future.
This logical framework is just as applicable in the crypto world, only the parameters have changed.
The boundary of knowledge is a very honest perspective, but unfortunately, during execution, it is often overwhelmed by FOMO.
Regarding stock investing, I want to share some recent thoughts. Ultimately, buying stocks is essentially buying a company. Being listed or not simply provides convenience for exit, but does not change the intrinsic value of the company itself.
To measure how much a company is worth, look at how much cash flow it can generate in the future. Discounting these future cash flows to today’s value is the intrinsic value of the company. As an investor, you should only buy when the stock price is significantly below this intrinsic value. As for what "significantly" means—whether a 40% discount, 50%, or another figure—completely depends on your other investment opportunities—that's the consideration of the margin of safety.
However, there's an easily overlooked point: calculating intrinsic value is not just a simple math problem. Using a calculator to precisely derive it is a misconception. It’s more of a way of thinking—a rational judgment about the company's future.
To accurately assess a company's value, you must first acknowledge your knowledge boundaries. Only invest in fields and companies you truly understand (the circle of competence principle); this is a prerequisite. At the same time, a "moat" is a key indicator of whether a company can maintain its competitive advantage over the long term. Corporate culture is often the deepest moat—it's hard to imagine a company with a diffuse culture building a real competitive barrier.
Finally, in the face of daily market fluctuations, maintaining rationality is very important. Regularly review your investment logic for each position and see if it still holds. These principles sound simple, but executing them is actually quite difficult.