The first week of the new year brought a "roller coaster" ride in U.S. Treasury yields—initially testing higher, but by Friday, they moved up and down unpredictably, as the market clearly waits in anticipation for next week's big events.

The real test is right in front of us. What will happen next week? Simply put, it all comes down to two words: employment.

On Wednesday, the ADP employment report kicks things off, but the main event is on Friday—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Predictions among institutions are already underway. Capital Economics expects the unemployment rate to slightly decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%, while Citigroup has a contrary view, expecting it to rise to 4.7%. Such divergence is enough to make the market tremble a bit.

Why is employment data so critical? Because it directly determines the fate of rate cut expectations.

If employment remains strong, indicating the economy is still robust, the dream of rate cuts will be pushed further back, and interest rates will stay high longer. In such an environment, the crypto market faces high financing costs, naturally suppressing the appeal of risk assets.

Conversely, if employment cools significantly and the unemployment rate rises, the market will reignite expectations for rate cuts. Once those expectations heat up, the possibility of improved liquidity opens up, and risk assets like BTC and ETH may be re-priced.

The current situation is: don’t rush to bet. Prepare before the data is released; once announced, volatility could strike immediately. Sentiment tokens like DOGE and PEPE will be more sensitive, so it’s advisable to watch more and act less.

How do you see it? Will the unemployment rate rise or fall? Share your thoughts in the comments.