#美联储降息政策 Seeing the recent moves by the central banks, I need to remind everyone of an overlooked detail — global central banks are quietly changing their tone, which will have a real impact on on-chain fund flows.

The Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates before June next year, and the Bank of England is starting to brake on rate cuts. This reflects not good news, but that economies around the world are slowing down. Do you know what this means? The era of abundant liquidity may be coming to an end.

I have seen too many people get caught up in FOMO during periods of loose liquidity, with project teams issuing air tokens to match expectations of rate cuts by central banks, and retail investors rushing in. When liquidity truly starts to tighten, they realize they are catching the last wave. The central bank's attitude shift is a weather vane — it doesn't mean an immediate crash, but the growth rate of funds will gradually slow down.

The key is to learn how to identify a project's lifecycle. When the overall liquidity environment transitions from loose to neutral, those projects without real applications that rely solely on fundraising will be the first to be exposed. Don’t wait until alarms sound before running; now is the time to see how long your holdings can last.

The secret to surviving on-chain for a long time is simple — when central banks start to be cautious, you should be even more cautious. Don’t wait until everyone reacts, because by then, the doors will already be closed.