The international situation has suddenly become tense over the past week. Reports indicate that a military conflict has occurred in a region involving a major energy supplier, causing market fears. While this may seem distant from the crypto world, it is actually an important variable influencing the volatility of crypto assets.

First, the outcome: if there is a risk to energy supply, crude oil prices will be driven up by sentiment, inflation expectations will reignite, and global financial assets will fluctuate accordingly.

What does this mean for us?

**Energy Crisis → Inflation Expectations → Asset Revaluation**

The key point is that the conflict region is one of the world's largest proven oil reserves. Although current production isn't the highest, war implies the possibility of supply disruptions. The crucial part: the market doesn't wait for facts to happen but prices in risks in advance.

Step one, crude oil and related energy assets will be pushed higher in the short term—Brent, WTI, coal, shipping—all will follow the trend upward. The production costs for energy-intensive countries will also rise.

Step two, the real chain reaction begins. Energy → Transportation → Food → Manufacturing, with inflation expectations propagating along this chain. Efforts by the US and Europe to suppress inflation may be undone, global interest rates will "stay high," and central bank easing expectations will be shattered.

Step three, the most direct impact on us: risk assets (tech stocks, growth stocks, highly volatile cryptocurrencies) will come under pressure. This is because economic growth expectations decline while financing costs rise—an undesirable combination for risk assets.

Simply put: Geopolitical conflict → Energy crisis → Resurgence of inflation → Revaluation of risk assets. Each link is interconnected. This isn't to suggest a short squeeze is imminent, but to remind us that we must keep a close eye on the macro environment.