Gold is likely to gap up at the open, and there is only one core reason behind it—significant recent changes in geopolitical tensions. Don’t worry about whether it’s true or false; the market’s reaction comes first, and gold prices are expected to head straight toward 4400. But at this point, stay calm and see if it can hold this level. If it cannot, it indicates a false alarm, and a pullback could happen at any time.

If official statements fail to provide substantial evidence (photos, videos, documents, etc.), and the other side remains active in the same area, it essentially confirms the "shorting scare" judgment. Risk aversion sentiment will quickly fade, and gold prices are likely to retest the 4300-4350 range.

Conversely, if solid evidence is presented—such as on-site videos or announcements of measures like oil sanctions—gold has no ceiling. Surpassing 4400 and pushing toward 4500 is not just a dream.

Friday’s non-farm payroll data will be the ultimate judge. There are three possibilities:

**Employment data exceeds expectations (over 200,000)**—The dollar and US bonds strengthen simultaneously, and gold bulls will exit, bringing the price back to around 4200.

**Employment data falls short of expectations (just over 100,000)**—The dollar plunges, and gold could rally further, potentially returning to 4500 or even higher.

**Data is average and unimpressive**—Gold will continue to oscillate between 4300 and 4500, waiting for the next variable to emerge.

The core logic is this: first, verify the authenticity of political events, observe the duration of risk aversion sentiment, then make decisions based on non-farm data. Confirmed signals are needed for short positions, trend confirmation for long positions, and low positions should be taken when data is weak.