Federal Reserve officials have been acting a bit interesting lately. Some are loudly calling for inflation to be suppressed, while others are worried about unemployment. This internal polarization actually reflects the contradictory dilemma of current economic data.

Looking at recent data makes it clear. The November unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, causing dovish officials to worry about a slipping job market; but at the same time, core PCE inflation remains stubbornly high at 2.8%, and the hawkish camp is unwilling to loosen. Under this conflicting situation, traditional policy tools seem to have lost their effectiveness. Cutting interest rates should stimulate the economy, but with tariffs, trade barriers, and supply chain disruptions still ongoing, inflation appears particularly persistent. A Wall Street trader made an analogy, saying the Fed is like exploring with an outdated map, and as a result, the crypto market has become their reference system.

The interesting part is that the performance of crypto assets over the years has started to show some "split personality." When the market expects rate cuts (liquidity improvement), Bitcoin tends to rise along with the US stock market. The rally after December last year is an example—US bank stocks surged 3.3%, and Bitcoin followed with a 2% increase. But conversely, if hawkish sentiment prevails and liquidity expectations shift toward tightening, gold and Bitcoin sometimes decline together. A rare double correction occurred in November last year, showing that their role as "safe-haven assets" is actually quite fragile.

My view is that Bitcoin is gradually evolving into a third role: a macro policy hedge tool. When divisions within the Federal Reserve deepen, market uncertainty increases, and funds tend to flow into the crypto market. Essentially, this is a form of policy arbitrage, with investors using crypto assets to hedge systemic risks brought by Fed decisions.

In practice, during such periods of divergence, it’s especially important to pay attention to liquidity expectations and policy signal shifts. Bitcoin is no longer just a safe haven or risk asset; it’s more like a barometer, reflecting the true state of macro policy space.