2026-01-03 12:21:27

The legendary investor Michael Burry, who made a fortune during the 2008 financial crisis, has not been shy about bearish views on AI themes in recent years, and he has long been skeptical of Tesla's valuation. However, he recently took the rare step of explaining himself in person: although he indeed believes Tesla is seriously overvalued, he has no intention of actually shorting the stock. The reason is very practical— the risks and costs associated with shorting have become so high that it’s simply not worth it.

This story starts with the fundamentals. From Burry’s perspective, Tesla is under immense pressure right now. Global electric vehicle sales are beginning to decline, market competition is intensifying, price wars are fierce and eroding profits, and growth has clearly slowed down, leading to a disconnect between the stock price and the company's actual operational performance. In his words, Tesla’s valuation level is severely out of sync with its fundamentals.

The data makes this clear. Tesla’s official Q4 2025 delivery report shows 418,227 vehicles, down 16% year-over-year, and still below the market expectation of 426,000 units. Meanwhile, BYD’s full-year 2025 vehicle deliveries have surged to 4.6 million, officially making it the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer. In simple terms, Tesla’s absolute advantage in the electric vehicle sector no longer exists.

So Burry’s logic is quite straightforward: shorting is correct, but the risk-reward ratio of shorting itself has become extremely unfavorable. This instead highlights the market’s complexity—sometimes you get the direction right, but that doesn’t mean there’s a good way to operate.

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GovernancePretender

· 01-06 02:14

Speaking of Burry, this time he actually told the truth. Being bearish isn't wrong, but shorting isn't profitable. Now that's true market insight.

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LiquidationTherapist

· 01-05 11:00

Burry has made it clear this time. It's not wrong to be bearish on Tesla, but actually shorting it is just asking to get cut. The market is so unpredictable. --- BYD sold 4.6 million vehicles, while Tesla still maintains a high valuation. The gap is really not a small difference. --- In the end, it's still about the risk-reward ratio being unequal. Smart people should know when to keep quiet. --- The cost of shorting Tesla is enough to run ten other businesses. Burry has a clear understanding of this. --- The competition in the electric vehicle market has become so fierce that Tesla's moat is gone, yet its stock price is still soaring. That's truly absurd. --- Having judgment and having execution ability are two different things. This is probably the core message Burry wants to convey. --- Tesla's valuation being disconnected from its fundamentals has long needed correction. It all depends on when the market wakes up. --- Interestingly, short sellers are all on the sidelines, while holders are still stubbornly holding on. That's the market. --- BYD has already surpassed Tesla, which is still relying on old achievements. How will this story end? --- Burry's logic is sound; the key issue is that the risk is too high and the reward too small. There's no need to go all out just to be right.

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RugPullAlertBot

· 01-03 12:51

Basically, it's the helplessness of reality; even if you judge correctly, you still can't make money.

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rugdoc.eth

· 01-03 12:45

Burry is right, judging the right direction doesn't necessarily mean making money, that's the most heartbreaking part. --- Is Tesla overvalued? Maybe, but really shorting? Haha, the risk is too high to be worth it. --- BYD 4.6 million vs Tesla 4.18 million? That's some intense data. --- The cost of shorting is higher than the gains, which is why many big players only talk but don't act. --- In simple terms, it's overvaluation but no good hedging methods, this market is really magical. --- Does Burry also have to admit defeat? It seems that even the experts have to respect the craziness of the market. --- Tesla's declining competitiveness has actually been visible for a while, but the stock price has been holding up.

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SerumSqueezer

· 01-03 12:31

Burry is also real. Whether the judgment is correct or not depends on the risk-reward ratio. That's the true investment mindset.

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AirdropBuffet

· 01-03 12:27

Burry this guy is really something. He's bearish but doesn't dare to bet, honestly because he's scared. --- I agree that Tesla is overvalued, but shorting it now is like gambling, the risk is ridiculously high. --- BYD has already reached 4.6 million, while Tesla still remains lofty. This gap really can't be closed anymore. --- The harsh reality is that even if you predict the right direction, you can't make money. Haha. --- The idea that shorting costs are too high to be worth it sounds ridiculous, indicating how exaggerated the market has been pumped. --- So Elon Musk's magic is that he can make everyone obediently pay up, and even the fundamentals that are losing money can still be sustained.

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ZenZKPlayer

· 01-03 12:24

Burry actually told the truth this time; even if the judgment was correct, it doesn't matter. The key issue is that the cost-benefit analysis doesn't match at all.

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