Current geopolitical tensions are heating up, and adjustments in energy policies are quietly shaking up the crypto world. Let's take a look at the underlying logic—how the global macro environment, commodity fluctuations, and overall market risk sentiment could trigger chain reactions in the crypto market.

**Short-term Impact: Can risk aversion drive Bitcoin upward?**

As geopolitical conflicts intensify, uncertainties emerge in oil trade patterns. Oil, being one of the most important commodities globally, experiences price volatility that immediately sparks risk-averse demand. At this time, Bitcoin, often called "digital gold," may indeed attract a wave of safe-haven capital inflows, pushing prices higher in the short term. But don’t expect altcoins to follow suit—during periods of strong risk aversion, capital usually flows into the safest assets, and small-cap tokens are likely to oscillate or even retrace.

**Medium-term Test: How will US dollar liquidity reshape the crypto ecosystem?**

If international oil prices continue to rise, global inflation expectations will also increase. To control inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain high interest rates, which means US dollar liquidity will tighten further. This tightening will directly depress valuations of high-risk assets—the crypto sector, as a typical risk asset, will be the first to feel the impact. Bitcoin might hold up a bit better, but small and mid-cap tokens will face significant pressure. Conversely, if oil prices stabilize and geopolitical conflicts do not escalate, the crypto market’s funding environment will quickly revert to its own trend.

**Long-term Game: Will regulatory attitudes tighten in tandem?**

Hardline foreign policies often extend to crypto regulation. Strong interventions in the energy sector may also bring expectations of stricter regulation of cryptocurrencies. This is undoubtedly a variable worth monitoring for the long-term trajectory of the crypto market.