Looking at the US economy data for this year, it’s indeed a bit concerning. The number of business bankruptcies has surged to 717, the highest since 2010—over 70,000 manufacturing jobs were cut within a year, and the layoff rate has risen to 1.2%. But this is not the most painful part.

Currently, the number of unemployment claims looks decent, and many people think the job market is rock solid. In reality, that’s not the case. White-collar workers rely on severance pay after layoffs and haven’t yet applied for unemployment benefits, so the surface data appears good. But the real situation is that the hiring rate is declining, and the unemployment rate could spike to around 6% in 2026. Once that number is out, the Federal Reserve’s "slow rate cuts" plan will basically be abandoned, shifting to aggressive rate cuts, possibly by 125 basis points, with the final interest rate dropping to 2.25%—which is a completely different concept from Wall Street’s current expectation of 1-2 mild rate cuts.

Looking at GDP growth, the 4.3% in Q3 2025 is indeed impressive, but upon closer inspection, much of this is a false boom supported by tariffs suppressing imports. The cost behind this is a declining savings rate among the public, sluggish wage growth, the rich getting richer, and ordinary people’s lives becoming tighter—typical "K-shaped economy," with no sustainable growth.

Consumer spending is already problematic. The consumer confidence indicator has fallen to its lowest since 2021, plunging 28%—that’s a pretty alarming figure. Over 8,100 retail stores have closed, indicating that brick-and-mortar business is struggling. The default rate on consumer credit has soared to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. In other words, ordinary people have neither money to spend nor the mood to spend, and the consumption engine has already stalled.

Looking at these three aspects together, the US economy in 2026 may face a significant turning point. Employment pressure emerges, consumer capacity declines, and growth momentum weakens. With this combination, the Federal Reserve’s policy space will be increasingly squeezed. For the crypto market, this means liquidity conditions will change noticeably, so it’s important to stay alert.