TON, xStocks launch good news also couldn't break through the bear market... Is there a possibility of falling to $1.31?

As of Friday, Toncoin(TON) is moving within a range around $1.45. It has shown a slight rebound from the two-month low of $1.42, but the short-term downside risk remains due to technical bearish signals and negative indicators in the derivatives market.

xStocks Launches, a Signal of Ecosystem Expansion for TON Wallet

On Thursday, xStocks officially launched on the Ton blockchain, attracting attention. Now, major TON wallets such as TON Wallet, Tonkeeper, and MyTONWallet allow users to directly hold and trade tokenized US stocks like Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft. All transactions are processed within the wallet without the need for a separate trading platform or brokerage account, which signifies an expansion of real asset(RWA) adoption and enhanced usability of the Telegram-based ecosystem.

In the long term, this could lead to increased on-chain activity and real-world use cases. However, the market is currently maintaining a “risk-averse mode” in the short term. In fact, on the day of xStocks’ launch, TON dropped about 3%, falling to $1.42.

Derivatives Market, Deepening Bearish Positioning

Signals from the futures market are becoming more negative.

Negative Funding Rate - The OI-weighted funding rate turned negative on Friday at -0.011%. This indicates that short position holders are paying longs, suggesting a bearish market sentiment.

Imbalance in Position Composition - The long/short ratio remains below 0.36(1). A ratio below 1 indicates a larger short position, showing that “rebound selling” sentiment dominates among short-term traders.

Technical Levels: Support at $1.31 vs Resistance at $1.76

Ton failed to break through the upper resistance of the descending wedge(falling wedge) pattern on December 10, then declined about 14%, currently adjusting around $1.45.

Bearish Scenario: If the downtrend continues, the next daily support level is considered to be $1.31. The daily RSI is in the bearish zone below 34(50), and MACD has formed a bearish crossover on Wednesday, so further decline cannot be ruled out.

Recovery Scenario: If a rebound occurs, the first strong resistance level is likely to be the 50-day EMA at $1.76. However, the momentum remains weak, which could limit the strength of any rebound.

Ultimately, positive news alone seems insufficient to reverse the short-term bearish trend. Until technical strength and derivatives market sentiment improve, attention should be paid to the range around $1.45 or potential further downside scenarios.