North American energy dynamics rarely move in straight lines, and the Canadian crude situation proves it. Midwest refineries aren't just set up for Canadian oil—they're practically engineered around it. The pipeline infrastructure, the processing specs, the logistics—you can't just flip a switch and pivot to alternatives overnight. Venezuela's moves barely register as a threat when structural capacity constraints are this entrenched.

Here's the thing: if demand keeps climbing the way most analysts expect, Canada doesn't face contraction—it faces pressure to expand. More supply needed means more investment flowing into Canadian projects. The math is simple. Pipeline-dependent infrastructure doesn't lose value when supply tightens; it becomes more critical.