Recently, there has been quite a bit of internal turmoil at the Federal Reserve. The San Francisco Fed released a report proposing a seemingly counterintuitive view: an average of about 15% high tariffs by 2025 may not push up inflation, but could actually lower inflation levels.

Their logic is as follows—high tariffs indeed increase economic uncertainty, but this uncertainty causes businesses to cut back on investment, and consumers to tighten their belts, leading to a decrease in aggregate demand. When the "deflationary pressure" from insufficient demand is strong enough, it may offset the impact of rising import prices. It sounds coherent, but the problem is.

The St. Louis Fed and the Boston Fed hold another view: tariffs will ultimately be passed on to consumer goods prices, pushing up the CPI. The three major Fed institutions are at odds, which has directly caused market unease.

When policy outlooks are unclear, investors start to worry. The most direct manifestation is increased stock market volatility, with traders swinging back and forth between "risks of economic slowdown" and "potential policy reversals." From the perspective of the crypto market, any policy-related movement is enough to trigger intense emotional swings.

Simply put: as long as the Fed is still debating, the market can only continue to fluctuate with high volatility. This pattern is unlikely to change in the short term—every policy signal could become a turning point for prices.