Federal Reserve interest rate expectations undergo a major shift: holding steady in January, possibly starting a rate cut cycle in March

【CoinPush】The latest forecast from the Federal Funds Futures market shows an interesting interest rate outlook.

In January, the market believes there is a high probability (88.4%) that the Federal Reserve will hold steady and maintain the current interest rate level. Only about 11.6% expect a 25 basis point cut. This indicates that market expectations for recent policy are relatively stable.

However, by March, the situation begins to change. The probability of a rate cut increases significantly—the chance of a 25 basis point reduction reaching 40.3%. Still, more than half of market participants (55.4%) expect rates to remain unchanged. The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is small, at only 4.3%.

This gradient-based rate cut expectation reflects the market’s cautious attitude toward economic prospects. If this expectation materializes, it could mean a mild improvement in liquidity conditions for risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—in the first quarter. For investors holding digital assets, such data is worth close attention, as interest rate policies directly impact funding costs and market risk appetite.